Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms on August 19, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and cap maximum temperatures near 31–32°C amid high humidity and moderate winds. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes, as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared to clearer conditions that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Seasonal context shows August averages around 31–32°C, with a background of above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, while recent heatwave persistence and potential tropical influences like Tropical Storm Dolphin introduce variability in steering patterns and moisture. Official daily maximum readings from the Observatory will determine resolution, with updated model runs likely to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?
31°C 35%
32°C 33%
30°C 17%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
17%
31°C
35%
32°C
33%
33°C
14%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
31°C 35%
32°C 33%
30°C 17%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
26°C or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$516 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$298 Vol.
1%
29°C
$29 Vol.
5%
30°C
$113 Vol.
17%
31°C
$321 Vol.
35%
32°C
$98 Vol.
33%
33°C
$94 Vol.
14%
34°C
$126 Vol.
3%
35°C
$5 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms on August 19, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and cap maximum temperatures near 31–32°C amid high humidity and moderate winds. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes, as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared to clearer conditions that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Seasonal context shows August averages around 31–32°C, with a background of above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, while recent heatwave persistence and potential tropical influences like Tropical Storm Dolphin introduce variability in steering patterns and moisture. Official daily maximum readings from the Observatory will determine resolution, with updated model runs likely to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,686End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms on August 19, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and cap maximum temperatures near 31–32°C amid high humidity and moderate winds. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes, as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared to clearer conditions that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Seasonal context shows August averages around 31–32°C, with a background of above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, while recent heatwave persistence and potential tropical influences like Tropical Storm Dolphin introduce variability in steering patterns and moisture. Official daily maximum readings from the Observatory will determine resolution, with updated model runs likely to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,686End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms on August 19, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and cap maximum temperatures near 31–32°C amid high humidity and moderate winds. This aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes, as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared to clearer conditions that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Seasonal context shows August averages around 31–32°C, with a background of above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, while recent heatwave persistence and potential tropical influences like Tropical Storm Dolphin introduce variability in steering patterns and moisture. Official daily maximum readings from the Observatory will determine resolution, with updated model runs likely to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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