Recent short-range forecasts for Istanbul indicate a daily maximum temperature near 28–30°C on August 21 under predominantly sunny conditions and light northerly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology where the long-term average high sits at approximately 28–29°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread driven by subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and potential for localized sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus, keeping the bulk of probability mass between 26°C and 28°C. The 27°C outcome leads because it aligns with the central tendency of both statistical analogs and current dynamical model consensus, while lower or higher bins reflect tail risks from minor forecast adjustments or observational revisions at official stations. No significant synoptic forcing or heatwave signal has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift the distribution markedly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
27°C 51%
26°C 22%
28°C 16%
25°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
22%
27°C
51%
28°C
16%
29°C
4%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 51%
26°C 22%
28°C 16%
25°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$216 Vol.
1%
23°C
$204 Vol.
1%
24°C
$27 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$1,663 Vol.
22%
27°C
$350 Vol.
51%
28°C
$182 Vol.
16%
29°C
$74 Vol.
4%
30°C
$135 Vol.
1%
31°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$34 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts for Istanbul indicate a daily maximum temperature near 28–30°C on August 21 under predominantly sunny conditions and light northerly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology where the long-term average high sits at approximately 28–29°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread driven by subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and potential for localized sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus, keeping the bulk of probability mass between 26°C and 28°C. The 27°C outcome leads because it aligns with the central tendency of both statistical analogs and current dynamical model consensus, while lower or higher bins reflect tail risks from minor forecast adjustments or observational revisions at official stations. No significant synoptic forcing or heatwave signal has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift the distribution markedly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,912End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts for Istanbul indicate a daily maximum temperature near 28–30°C on August 21 under predominantly sunny conditions and light northerly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology where the long-term average high sits at approximately 28–29°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread driven by subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and potential for localized sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus, keeping the bulk of probability mass between 26°C and 28°C. The 27°C outcome leads because it aligns with the central tendency of both statistical analogs and current dynamical model consensus, while lower or higher bins reflect tail risks from minor forecast adjustments or observational revisions at official stations. No significant synoptic forcing or heatwave signal has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift the distribution markedly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,912End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts for Istanbul indicate a daily maximum temperature near 28–30°C on August 21 under predominantly sunny conditions and light northerly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology where the long-term average high sits at approximately 28–29°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread driven by subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and potential for localized sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus, keeping the bulk of probability mass between 26°C and 28°C. The 27°C outcome leads because it aligns with the central tendency of both statistical analogs and current dynamical model consensus, while lower or higher bins reflect tail risks from minor forecast adjustments or observational revisions at official stations. No significant synoptic forcing or heatwave signal has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift the distribution markedly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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