Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 22 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered showers, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where average lows hover near 13 °C, though higher dew points and light winds could suppress the drop toward 12 °C or allow brief clearing that favors 14–15 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain modest, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any precipitation and the extent of nocturnal cloud cover in the final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?
14°C 31%
13°C 29%
12°C 26%
10°C or below 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
10°C or below
18%
11°C
7%
12°C
26%
13°C
29%
14°C
31%
15°C
30%
16°C
9%
17°C
7%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
14°C 31%
13°C 29%
12°C 26%
10°C or below 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
10°C or below
$10 Vol.
18%
11°C
$8 Vol.
7%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$1 Vol.
29%
14°C
$0 Vol.
31%
15°C
$28 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$62 Vol.
3%
19°C
$30 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$30 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 22 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered showers, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where average lows hover near 13 °C, though higher dew points and light winds could suppress the drop toward 12 °C or allow brief clearing that favors 14–15 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain modest, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any precipitation and the extent of nocturnal cloud cover in the final model runs.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$169End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 22 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered showers, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where average lows hover near 13 °C, though higher dew points and light winds could suppress the drop toward 12 °C or allow brief clearing that favors 14–15 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain modest, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any precipitation and the extent of nocturnal cloud cover in the final model runs.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$169End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 22 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered showers, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where average lows hover near 13 °C, though higher dew points and light winds could suppress the drop toward 12 °C or allow brief clearing that favors 14–15 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain modest, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any precipitation and the extent of nocturnal cloud cover in the final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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