Mexico City's high-elevation setting (roughly 2,240 meters) drives radiative cooling overnight, producing typical August minimums near 11–13°C amid the rainy season's frequent cloud cover and scattered convection. Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and Weatherspark indicate lows of 12–14°C for August 22 under mostly cloudy to mixed conditions with potential showers, aligning with the clustered market odds around 11–15°C. Differentiating factors include variable nocturnal cloud thickness—which can trap heat and raise the minimum by 1–2°C—versus clearer intervals that enhance cooling, plus minor model spreads in steering patterns and urban heat-island influences on station readings. Historical data show August lows rarely dip below 11°C without a rare cold surge, keeping lower outcomes at minimal implied probability while the tight spread among leading bins reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in exact overnight radiative balance.