Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for August 21 project a maximum of 27–31°C under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap daytime heating. This range underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, with 30°C leading at 33%. Persistent moisture and reduced solar radiation differentiate these outcomes from higher or lower extremes by suppressing peak temperatures relative to climatological August averages near 32°C. Recent model guidance shows consistent patterns, though traders monitor potential revisions from updated runs in the final 48 hours that could shift convective activity or wind fields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
30°C 34%
31°C 28%
29°C 25%
32°C 9%
NEW
$20,910 Vol.
NEW
$20,910 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
25%
30°C
34%
31°C
28%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 34%
31°C 28%
29°C 25%
32°C 9%
NEW
$20,910 Vol.
NEW
$20,910 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
24°C or below
$611 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$802 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,598 Vol.
1%
28°C
$4,103 Vol.
7%
29°C
$3,011 Vol.
25%
30°C
$1,850 Vol.
34%
31°C
$1,275 Vol.
28%
32°C
$1,251 Vol.
9%
33°C
$465 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$582 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for August 21 project a maximum of 27–31°C under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap daytime heating. This range underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, with 30°C leading at 33%. Persistent moisture and reduced solar radiation differentiate these outcomes from higher or lower extremes by suppressing peak temperatures relative to climatological August averages near 32°C. Recent model guidance shows consistent patterns, though traders monitor potential revisions from updated runs in the final 48 hours that could shift convective activity or wind fields.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$20,910End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for August 21 project a maximum of 27–31°C under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap daytime heating. This range underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, with 30°C leading at 33%. Persistent moisture and reduced solar radiation differentiate these outcomes from higher or lower extremes by suppressing peak temperatures relative to climatological August averages near 32°C. Recent model guidance shows consistent patterns, though traders monitor potential revisions from updated runs in the final 48 hours that could shift convective activity or wind fields.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,910End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for August 21 project a maximum of 27–31°C under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap daytime heating. This range underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, with 30°C leading at 33%. Persistent moisture and reduced solar radiation differentiate these outcomes from higher or lower extremes by suppressing peak temperatures relative to climatological August averages near 32°C. Recent model guidance shows consistent patterns, though traders monitor potential revisions from updated runs in the final 48 hours that could shift convective activity or wind fields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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