Recent model consensus from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a daytime maximum near 30–32°C in Istanbul on August 23 under mostly sunny, high-pressure conditions typical of late-summer Mediterranean weather. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 27–28°C, where traders weigh the moderating influence of Bosphorus sea breezes and possible slight cooling from an incoming weak front against historical August averages of 28–30°C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, any updated runs showing revised wind speeds or cloud cover could quickly shift implied probabilities between the top two outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
28°C 49%
27°C 28%
29°C 17%
26°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
28%
28°C
49%
29°C
17%
30°C
4%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
4%
28°C 49%
27°C 28%
29°C 17%
26°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
$25 Vol.
2%
24°C
$25 Vol.
4%
25°C
$71 Vol.
2%
26°C
$42 Vol.
6%
27°C
$71 Vol.
28%
28°C
$58 Vol.
49%
29°C
$30 Vol.
17%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$6 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a daytime maximum near 30–32°C in Istanbul on August 23 under mostly sunny, high-pressure conditions typical of late-summer Mediterranean weather. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 27–28°C, where traders weigh the moderating influence of Bosphorus sea breezes and possible slight cooling from an incoming weak front against historical August averages of 28–30°C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, any updated runs showing revised wind speeds or cloud cover could quickly shift implied probabilities between the top two outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$333End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a daytime maximum near 30–32°C in Istanbul on August 23 under mostly sunny, high-pressure conditions typical of late-summer Mediterranean weather. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 27–28°C, where traders weigh the moderating influence of Bosphorus sea breezes and possible slight cooling from an incoming weak front against historical August averages of 28–30°C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, any updated runs showing revised wind speeds or cloud cover could quickly shift implied probabilities between the top two outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$333End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a daytime maximum near 30–32°C in Istanbul on August 23 under mostly sunny, high-pressure conditions typical of late-summer Mediterranean weather. This supports the market’s tight clustering around 27–28°C, where traders weigh the moderating influence of Bosphorus sea breezes and possible slight cooling from an incoming weak front against historical August averages of 28–30°C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, any updated runs showing revised wind speeds or cloud cover could quickly shift implied probabilities between the top two outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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