Recent short-range forecast models indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 will likely fall between 18–24°C, with trader odds clustered tightly around 20–24°C reflecting model spread on nocturnal cooling. Primary drivers include variable low-level humidity and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea, which moderate radiative heat loss under partly cloudy conditions, alongside urban heat island effects that can elevate overnight lows by 1–3°C compared to rural baselines. Clearer skies in some ensemble members would enhance longwave radiation escape and support cooler readings near 17–18°C, while increased cloud cover or southerly flow favors warmer minima above 23°C. Historical August climatology places typical daily minima at 18–22°C, underscoring how small shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection can differentiate outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
25°C 49%
26°C or higher 47%
20°C 45%
24°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
16°C or below
42%
17°C
44%
18°C
44%
19°C
27%
20°C
45%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
45%
25°C
49%
26°C or higher
47%
25°C 49%
26°C or higher 47%
20°C 45%
24°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
16°C or below
$10 Vol.
42%
17°C
$5 Vol.
44%
18°C
$5 Vol.
44%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
45%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$15 Vol.
45%
25°C
$27 Vol.
49%
26°C or higher
$27 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 will likely fall between 18–24°C, with trader odds clustered tightly around 20–24°C reflecting model spread on nocturnal cooling. Primary drivers include variable low-level humidity and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea, which moderate radiative heat loss under partly cloudy conditions, alongside urban heat island effects that can elevate overnight lows by 1–3°C compared to rural baselines. Clearer skies in some ensemble members would enhance longwave radiation escape and support cooler readings near 17–18°C, while increased cloud cover or southerly flow favors warmer minima above 23°C. Historical August climatology places typical daily minima at 18–22°C, underscoring how small shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection can differentiate outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$89End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 will likely fall between 18–24°C, with trader odds clustered tightly around 20–24°C reflecting model spread on nocturnal cooling. Primary drivers include variable low-level humidity and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea, which moderate radiative heat loss under partly cloudy conditions, alongside urban heat island effects that can elevate overnight lows by 1–3°C compared to rural baselines. Clearer skies in some ensemble members would enhance longwave radiation escape and support cooler readings near 17–18°C, while increased cloud cover or southerly flow favors warmer minima above 23°C. Historical August climatology places typical daily minima at 18–22°C, underscoring how small shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection can differentiate outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$89End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models indicate Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 will likely fall between 18–24°C, with trader odds clustered tightly around 20–24°C reflecting model spread on nocturnal cooling. Primary drivers include variable low-level humidity and wind speeds over the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea, which moderate radiative heat loss under partly cloudy conditions, alongside urban heat island effects that can elevate overnight lows by 1–3°C compared to rural baselines. Clearer skies in some ensemble members would enhance longwave radiation escape and support cooler readings near 17–18°C, while increased cloud cover or southerly flow favors warmer minima above 23°C. Historical August climatology places typical daily minima at 18–22°C, underscoring how small shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection can differentiate outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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