High atmospheric moisture, with dew points recently in the low 70s°F, has limited radiative cooling and supported trader consensus around 70–73°F lows for New York City on August 20. Recent model guidance from the National Weather Service shows mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions, where modest variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or urban heat retention could shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Warmer-than-average August baselines and persistent humidity differentiate the tightly matched 70–71°F and 72–73°F outcomes, while lower probabilities reflect rarer scenarios of stronger cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations tonight will refine these near-term probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 20?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 20?
70-71°F 36%
72-73°F 36%
74-75°F 18%
68-69°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
36%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 36%
72-73°F 36%
74-75°F 18%
68-69°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$135 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$61 Vol.
11%
70-71°F
$1 Vol.
36%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
36%
74-75°F
$13 Vol.
18%
76-77°F
$182 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$116 Vol.
2%
80°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High atmospheric moisture, with dew points recently in the low 70s°F, has limited radiative cooling and supported trader consensus around 70–73°F lows for New York City on August 20. Recent model guidance from the National Weather Service shows mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions, where modest variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or urban heat retention could shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Warmer-than-average August baselines and persistent humidity differentiate the tightly matched 70–71°F and 72–73°F outcomes, while lower probabilities reflect rarer scenarios of stronger cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations tonight will refine these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$519End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High atmospheric moisture, with dew points recently in the low 70s°F, has limited radiative cooling and supported trader consensus around 70–73°F lows for New York City on August 20. Recent model guidance from the National Weather Service shows mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions, where modest variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or urban heat retention could shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Warmer-than-average August baselines and persistent humidity differentiate the tightly matched 70–71°F and 72–73°F outcomes, while lower probabilities reflect rarer scenarios of stronger cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations tonight will refine these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$519End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...High atmospheric moisture, with dew points recently in the low 70s°F, has limited radiative cooling and supported trader consensus around 70–73°F lows for New York City on August 20. Recent model guidance from the National Weather Service shows mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions, where modest variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or urban heat retention could shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Warmer-than-average August baselines and persistent humidity differentiate the tightly matched 70–71°F and 72–73°F outcomes, while lower probabilities reflect rarer scenarios of stronger cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations tonight will refine these near-term probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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