Persistent warm, humid southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 19, aligning with National Weather Service and global model consensus. Recent forecasts show temperatures bottoming near 70–73°F after midnight, with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s suppressing further drops; this matches the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–73°F bins. No strong cold front or clear-sky radiational event is expected before sunrise, while the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures reinforces trader focus on these levels rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 19?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 19?
72-73°F 40%
74-75°F 28%
70-71°F 28%
68-69°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
40%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
3%
80°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 40%
74-75°F 28%
70-71°F 28%
68-69°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
61°F or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$10 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
4%
66-67°F
$18 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
28%
72-73°F
$6 Vol.
40%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$62 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
3%
80°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 19, aligning with National Weather Service and global model consensus. Recent forecasts show temperatures bottoming near 70–73°F after midnight, with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s suppressing further drops; this matches the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–73°F bins. No strong cold front or clear-sky radiational event is expected before sunrise, while the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures reinforces trader focus on these levels rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$121End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 19, aligning with National Weather Service and global model consensus. Recent forecasts show temperatures bottoming near 70–73°F after midnight, with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s suppressing further drops; this matches the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–73°F bins. No strong cold front or clear-sky radiational event is expected before sunrise, while the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures reinforces trader focus on these levels rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$121End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm, humid southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 19, aligning with National Weather Service and global model consensus. Recent forecasts show temperatures bottoming near 70–73°F after midnight, with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s suppressing further drops; this matches the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–73°F bins. No strong cold front or clear-sky radiational event is expected before sunrise, while the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures reinforces trader focus on these levels rather than cooler or warmer outliers. Updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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