Current forecast models from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a highest temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, typical mid-August atmospheric conditions, and expected afternoon cloud cover or showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August averages hover around 24–25°C, with recent model runs showing limited warming potential amid the ongoing rainy season. Trader-implied odds, led by 26°C at 48.5% followed by 27°C and 25°C, align closely with this consensus while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from variable precipitation timing and localized urban heat effects. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will further refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 19?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 19?
26°C 49%
27°C 23%
25°C 21%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
6%
25°C
21%
26°C
49%
27°C
23%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 49%
27°C 23%
25°C 21%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
$144 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$441 Vol.
4%
24°C
$174 Vol.
6%
25°C
$556 Vol.
21%
26°C
$314 Vol.
49%
27°C
$79 Vol.
23%
28°C
$198 Vol.
5%
29°C
$172 Vol.
1%
30°C
$144 Vol.
1%
31°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a highest temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, typical mid-August atmospheric conditions, and expected afternoon cloud cover or showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August averages hover around 24–25°C, with recent model runs showing limited warming potential amid the ongoing rainy season. Trader-implied odds, led by 26°C at 48.5% followed by 27°C and 25°C, align closely with this consensus while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from variable precipitation timing and localized urban heat effects. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will further refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,302End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a highest temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, typical mid-August atmospheric conditions, and expected afternoon cloud cover or showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August averages hover around 24–25°C, with recent model runs showing limited warming potential amid the ongoing rainy season. Trader-implied odds, led by 26°C at 48.5% followed by 27°C and 25°C, align closely with this consensus while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from variable precipitation timing and localized urban heat effects. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will further refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,302End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a highest temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, typical mid-August atmospheric conditions, and expected afternoon cloud cover or showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August averages hover around 24–25°C, with recent model runs showing limited warming potential amid the ongoing rainy season. Trader-implied odds, led by 26°C at 48.5% followed by 27°C and 25°C, align closely with this consensus while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from variable precipitation timing and localized urban heat effects. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will further refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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