**Persistent high pressure and dry conditions across Central Texas have sustained intense daytime heating into mid-August, positioning 102–103°F as the leading outcome with 55.5% market-implied probability.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and recent model runs indicate mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal moisture for August 19, favoring strong solar heating with afternoon highs near 102–103°F and heat indices exceeding 105°F. This aligns with the seasonal peak for Austin, where average August highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s, and recent observations show multiple consecutive days at or above 102°F without a cooling front. Lower-probability bins (100–101°F at 23.5% or 104–105°F at 16.0%) reflect minor uncertainties in exact ridge placement and any isolated afternoon convection, while extremes remain unlikely given current atmospheric stability. Traders are closely monitoring the next NWS forecast update and short-range model consensus for any late shifts in steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 19?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 19?
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 24%
104-105°F 16%
98-99°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
93°F or below
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
4%
100-101°F
24%
102-103°F
56%
104-105°F
16%
106-107°F
3%
108-109°F
1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 24%
104-105°F 16%
98-99°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
93°F or below
$237 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$152 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$179 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$123 Vol.
4%
100-101°F
$319 Vol.
24%
102-103°F
$416 Vol.
56%
104-105°F
$108 Vol.
16%
106-107°F
$122 Vol.
3%
108-109°F
$92 Vol.
1%
110-111°F
$150 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$290 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and dry conditions across Central Texas have sustained intense daytime heating into mid-August, positioning 102–103°F as the leading outcome with 55.5% market-implied probability.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and recent model runs indicate mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal moisture for August 19, favoring strong solar heating with afternoon highs near 102–103°F and heat indices exceeding 105°F. This aligns with the seasonal peak for Austin, where average August highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s, and recent observations show multiple consecutive days at or above 102°F without a cooling front. Lower-probability bins (100–101°F at 23.5% or 104–105°F at 16.0%) reflect minor uncertainties in exact ridge placement and any isolated afternoon convection, while extremes remain unlikely given current atmospheric stability. Traders are closely monitoring the next NWS forecast update and short-range model consensus for any late shifts in steering patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,170End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and dry conditions across Central Texas have sustained intense daytime heating into mid-August, positioning 102–103°F as the leading outcome with 55.5% market-implied probability.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and recent model runs indicate mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal moisture for August 19, favoring strong solar heating with afternoon highs near 102–103°F and heat indices exceeding 105°F. This aligns with the seasonal peak for Austin, where average August highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s, and recent observations show multiple consecutive days at or above 102°F without a cooling front. Lower-probability bins (100–101°F at 23.5% or 104–105°F at 16.0%) reflect minor uncertainties in exact ridge placement and any isolated afternoon convection, while extremes remain unlikely given current atmospheric stability. Traders are closely monitoring the next NWS forecast update and short-range model consensus for any late shifts in steering patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,170End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high pressure and dry conditions across Central Texas have sustained intense daytime heating into mid-August, positioning 102–103°F as the leading outcome with 55.5% market-implied probability.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and recent model runs indicate mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal moisture for August 19, favoring strong solar heating with afternoon highs near 102–103°F and heat indices exceeding 105°F. This aligns with the seasonal peak for Austin, where average August highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s, and recent observations show multiple consecutive days at or above 102°F without a cooling front. Lower-probability bins (100–101°F at 23.5% or 104–105°F at 16.0%) reflect minor uncertainties in exact ridge placement and any isolated afternoon convection, while extremes remain unlikely given current atmospheric stability. Traders are closely monitoring the next NWS forecast update and short-range model consensus for any late shifts in steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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