Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from major centers show peak daytime temperatures in Warsaw on August 25 clustering tightly between 21–23 °C, producing the near-even split between the 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes. Moderate westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited diurnal heating under typical late-August synoptic patterns keep values near the seasonal mean of roughly 23 °C. Minor model disagreements center on the exact timing and extent of any broken cloud or weak frontal passage that could trim or boost the maximum by 1 °C. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution uncertainty inherent in the final 48-hour forecast updates and official Polish meteorological observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
22°C 41%
23°C 39%
21°C 12%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
6%
21°C
12%
22°C
41%
23°C
39%
24°C
12%
25°C
3%
26°C
6%
27°C or higher
2%
22°C 41%
23°C 39%
21°C 12%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
6%
21°C
$0 Vol.
12%
22°C
$0 Vol.
41%
23°C
$44 Vol.
39%
24°C
$10 Vol.
12%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$5 Vol.
6%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from major centers show peak daytime temperatures in Warsaw on August 25 clustering tightly between 21–23 °C, producing the near-even split between the 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes. Moderate westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited diurnal heating under typical late-August synoptic patterns keep values near the seasonal mean of roughly 23 °C. Minor model disagreements center on the exact timing and extent of any broken cloud or weak frontal passage that could trim or boost the maximum by 1 °C. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution uncertainty inherent in the final 48-hour forecast updates and official Polish meteorological observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$79End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from major centers show peak daytime temperatures in Warsaw on August 25 clustering tightly between 21–23 °C, producing the near-even split between the 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes. Moderate westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited diurnal heating under typical late-August synoptic patterns keep values near the seasonal mean of roughly 23 °C. Minor model disagreements center on the exact timing and extent of any broken cloud or weak frontal passage that could trim or boost the maximum by 1 °C. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution uncertainty inherent in the final 48-hour forecast updates and official Polish meteorological observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$79End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from major centers show peak daytime temperatures in Warsaw on August 25 clustering tightly between 21–23 °C, producing the near-even split between the 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes. Moderate westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited diurnal heating under typical late-August synoptic patterns keep values near the seasonal mean of roughly 23 °C. Minor model disagreements center on the exact timing and extent of any broken cloud or weak frontal passage that could trim or boost the maximum by 1 °C. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution uncertainty inherent in the final 48-hour forecast updates and official Polish meteorological observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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