**Recent model guidance points to a cooler-than-average day in Warsaw on August 24, with official and ensemble forecasts centering daily maxima near 19–21 °C under increasing cloud cover and possible showers.** Climatologically, Warsaw’s August highs average ~23 °C, but a northwesterly Atlantic flow and associated frontal activity are expected to limit insolation and advect cooler maritime air, suppressing peak temperatures. Short-range guidance from sources such as timeanddate, BBC, and AccuWeather shows highs of 19–21 °C with overcast skies and light precipitation chances, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 19 °C (29.5 %) and 20 °C (37 %) buckets. The tight clustering of probabilities around these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1 °C. Higher outcomes (22 °C+) carry low odds because current ensemble spread does not favor significant warming, while sub-18 °C scenarios remain possible only if showers arrive earlier or are heavier than currently modeled. Updated runs from the Polish IMGW and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
20°C 37%
19°C 31%
18°C 12%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
6%
18°C
12%
19°C
31%
20°C
37%
21°C
11%
22°C
4%
23°C
3%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 37%
19°C 31%
18°C 12%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
6%
18°C
$45 Vol.
12%
19°C
$99 Vol.
31%
20°C
$53 Vol.
37%
21°C
$43 Vol.
11%
22°C
$7 Vol.
4%
23°C
$19 Vol.
3%
24°C
$45 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model guidance points to a cooler-than-average day in Warsaw on August 24, with official and ensemble forecasts centering daily maxima near 19–21 °C under increasing cloud cover and possible showers.**
Climatologically, Warsaw’s August highs average ~23 °C, but a northwesterly Atlantic flow and associated frontal activity are expected to limit insolation and advect cooler maritime air, suppressing peak temperatures. Short-range guidance from sources such as timeanddate, BBC, and AccuWeather shows highs of 19–21 °C with overcast skies and light precipitation chances, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 19 °C (29.5 %) and 20 °C (37 %) buckets.
The tight clustering of probabilities around these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1 °C. Higher outcomes (22 °C+) carry low odds because current ensemble spread does not favor significant warming, while sub-18 °C scenarios remain possible only if showers arrive earlier or are heavier than currently modeled. Updated runs from the Polish IMGW and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$361End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model guidance points to a cooler-than-average day in Warsaw on August 24, with official and ensemble forecasts centering daily maxima near 19–21 °C under increasing cloud cover and possible showers.**
Climatologically, Warsaw’s August highs average ~23 °C, but a northwesterly Atlantic flow and associated frontal activity are expected to limit insolation and advect cooler maritime air, suppressing peak temperatures. Short-range guidance from sources such as timeanddate, BBC, and AccuWeather shows highs of 19–21 °C with overcast skies and light precipitation chances, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 19 °C (29.5 %) and 20 °C (37 %) buckets.
The tight clustering of probabilities around these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1 °C. Higher outcomes (22 °C+) carry low odds because current ensemble spread does not favor significant warming, while sub-18 °C scenarios remain possible only if showers arrive earlier or are heavier than currently modeled. Updated runs from the Polish IMGW and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$361End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model guidance points to a cooler-than-average day in Warsaw on August 24, with official and ensemble forecasts centering daily maxima near 19–21 °C under increasing cloud cover and possible showers.** Climatologically, Warsaw’s August highs average ~23 °C, but a northwesterly Atlantic flow and associated frontal activity are expected to limit insolation and advect cooler maritime air, suppressing peak temperatures. Short-range guidance from sources such as timeanddate, BBC, and AccuWeather shows highs of 19–21 °C with overcast skies and light precipitation chances, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 19 °C (29.5 %) and 20 °C (37 %) buckets. The tight clustering of probabilities around these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1 °C. Higher outcomes (22 °C+) carry low odds because current ensemble spread does not favor significant warming, while sub-18 °C scenarios remain possible only if showers arrive earlier or are heavier than currently modeled. Updated runs from the Polish IMGW and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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