Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature of 65–66°F on August 26 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds shifting southerly overnight, and minimal cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading 66–67°F bin at 42% implied probability, followed by adjacent ranges reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dewpoint trends. Late-summer climatology places the normal low near 67°F, while the absence of significant frontal passages or tropical moisture this week has kept probabilities concentrated in the mid-60s rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 26?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 26?
66-67°F 45%
64-65°F 35%
68-69°F 21%
60-61°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
35%
66-67°F
45%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
4%
74°F or higher
5%
66-67°F 45%
64-65°F 35%
68-69°F 21%
60-61°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
55°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$10 Vol.
4%
58-59°F
$10 Vol.
6%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
11%
62-63°F
$21 Vol.
7%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
35%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
45%
68-69°F
$801 Vol.
21%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
4%
74°F or higher
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature of 65–66°F on August 26 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds shifting southerly overnight, and minimal cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading 66–67°F bin at 42% implied probability, followed by adjacent ranges reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dewpoint trends. Late-summer climatology places the normal low near 67°F, while the absence of significant frontal passages or tropical moisture this week has kept probabilities concentrated in the mid-60s rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$857End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature of 65–66°F on August 26 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds shifting southerly overnight, and minimal cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading 66–67°F bin at 42% implied probability, followed by adjacent ranges reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dewpoint trends. Late-summer climatology places the normal low near 67°F, while the absence of significant frontal passages or tropical moisture this week has kept probabilities concentrated in the mid-60s rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$857End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature of 65–66°F on August 26 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds shifting southerly overnight, and minimal cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading 66–67°F bin at 42% implied probability, followed by adjacent ranges reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dewpoint trends. Late-summer climatology places the normal low near 67°F, while the absence of significant frontal passages or tropical moisture this week has kept probabilities concentrated in the mid-60s rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions