Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a narrow range of daily maximum temperatures around 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 27, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near those thresholds. Subtropical high pressure and weak synoptic flow limit strong advection, while coastal sea breezes and variable low-level moisture introduce small differences in afternoon heating and boundary-layer mixing that separate the leading outcomes. Recent model runs show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and sea-surface temperature anomalies along the Yellow Sea, with historical late-August averages near 28–30°C providing context. Updated numerical guidance and local CMA observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 27?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 27?
31°C 35%
30°C 34%
32°C 24%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
34%
31°C
35%
32°C
24%
33°C
7%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 35%
30°C 34%
32°C 24%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
25°C or below
$175 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
12%
30°C
$8 Vol.
34%
31°C
$0 Vol.
35%
32°C
$2 Vol.
24%
33°C
$0 Vol.
7%
34°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a narrow range of daily maximum temperatures around 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 27, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near those thresholds. Subtropical high pressure and weak synoptic flow limit strong advection, while coastal sea breezes and variable low-level moisture introduce small differences in afternoon heating and boundary-layer mixing that separate the leading outcomes. Recent model runs show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and sea-surface temperature anomalies along the Yellow Sea, with historical late-August averages near 28–30°C providing context. Updated numerical guidance and local CMA observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$195End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a narrow range of daily maximum temperatures around 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 27, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near those thresholds. Subtropical high pressure and weak synoptic flow limit strong advection, while coastal sea breezes and variable low-level moisture introduce small differences in afternoon heating and boundary-layer mixing that separate the leading outcomes. Recent model runs show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and sea-surface temperature anomalies along the Yellow Sea, with historical late-August averages near 28–30°C providing context. Updated numerical guidance and local CMA observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$195End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a narrow range of daily maximum temperatures around 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 27, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near those thresholds. Subtropical high pressure and weak synoptic flow limit strong advection, while coastal sea breezes and variable low-level moisture introduce small differences in afternoon heating and boundary-layer mixing that separate the leading outcomes. Recent model runs show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and sea-surface temperature anomalies along the Yellow Sea, with historical late-August averages near 28–30°C providing context. Updated numerical guidance and local CMA observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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