Trader consensus heavily favors a 70-71°F minimum in New York City on August 24 because ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow. Persistent warm, humid air from the Atlantic has kept dew points elevated, suppressing the typical late-August drop to the mid-60s. Official National Weather Service guidance aligns with these projections, showing lows near 69-71°F through the overnight period. Historical climatology places average August minima around 67°F, but current steering patterns and lack of frontal passages reduce the likelihood of sharper cooling. Updated model cycles later today could refine these thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 24?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 24?
70-71°F 85%
68-69°F 23%
64-65°F 1.8%
66-67°F <1%
$12,258 Vol.
$12,258 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
85%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 85%
68-69°F 23%
64-65°F 1.8%
66-67°F <1%
$12,258 Vol.
$12,258 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
55°F or below
$323 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$523 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,656 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$680 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,289 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$1,128 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$995 Vol.
23%
70-71°F
$2,894 Vol.
85%
72-73°F
$1,552 Vol.
<1%
74°F or higher
$173 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a 70-71°F minimum in New York City on August 24 because ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow. Persistent warm, humid air from the Atlantic has kept dew points elevated, suppressing the typical late-August drop to the mid-60s. Official National Weather Service guidance aligns with these projections, showing lows near 69-71°F through the overnight period. Historical climatology places average August minima around 67°F, but current steering patterns and lack of frontal passages reduce the likelihood of sharper cooling. Updated model cycles later today could refine these thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$12,258End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a 70-71°F minimum in New York City on August 24 because ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow. Persistent warm, humid air from the Atlantic has kept dew points elevated, suppressing the typical late-August drop to the mid-60s. Official National Weather Service guidance aligns with these projections, showing lows near 69-71°F through the overnight period. Historical climatology places average August minima around 67°F, but current steering patterns and lack of frontal passages reduce the likelihood of sharper cooling. Updated model cycles later today could refine these thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,258End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a 70-71°F minimum in New York City on August 24 because ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow. Persistent warm, humid air from the Atlantic has kept dew points elevated, suppressing the typical late-August drop to the mid-60s. Official National Weather Service guidance aligns with these projections, showing lows near 69-71°F through the overnight period. Historical climatology places average August minima around 67°F, but current steering patterns and lack of frontal passages reduce the likelihood of sharper cooling. Updated model cycles later today could refine these thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions