Recent forecast models from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles indicate Mexico City's overnight low on August 26 will likely fall between 11–13°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light precipitation, and moderate northerly winds limiting radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. The recent cold snap on August 24, with minima dipping to 8–9°C in western boroughs, has elevated trader caution around sub-10°C outcomes despite consensus guidance showing stabilization. Historical August averages near 10°C provide baseline context, yet model spreads and potential for clearer skies introduce uncertainty that supports the current market-implied distribution favoring the 9°C-or-below bucket alongside clustered probabilities around 11–16°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
9°C or below 88%
10°C 46%
14°C 26%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
88%
10°C
46%
11°C
25%
12°C
25%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
25%
17°C
8%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
1%
9°C or below 88%
10°C 46%
14°C 26%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
88%
10°C
$5 Vol.
46%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$5 Vol.
8%
18°C
$5 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles indicate Mexico City's overnight low on August 26 will likely fall between 11–13°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light precipitation, and moderate northerly winds limiting radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. The recent cold snap on August 24, with minima dipping to 8–9°C in western boroughs, has elevated trader caution around sub-10°C outcomes despite consensus guidance showing stabilization. Historical August averages near 10°C provide baseline context, yet model spreads and potential for clearer skies introduce uncertainty that supports the current market-implied distribution favoring the 9°C-or-below bucket alongside clustered probabilities around 11–16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles indicate Mexico City's overnight low on August 26 will likely fall between 11–13°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light precipitation, and moderate northerly winds limiting radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. The recent cold snap on August 24, with minima dipping to 8–9°C in western boroughs, has elevated trader caution around sub-10°C outcomes despite consensus guidance showing stabilization. Historical August averages near 10°C provide baseline context, yet model spreads and potential for clearer skies introduce uncertainty that supports the current market-implied distribution favoring the 9°C-or-below bucket alongside clustered probabilities around 11–16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles indicate Mexico City's overnight low on August 26 will likely fall between 11–13°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light precipitation, and moderate northerly winds limiting radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. The recent cold snap on August 24, with minima dipping to 8–9°C in western boroughs, has elevated trader caution around sub-10°C outcomes despite consensus guidance showing stabilization. Historical August averages near 10°C provide baseline context, yet model spreads and potential for clearer skies introduce uncertainty that supports the current market-implied distribution favoring the 9°C-or-below bucket alongside clustered probabilities around 11–16°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions