Traders see roughly equal 48.5% implied probabilities on a Toronto low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher for August 26 because official guidance and ensemble models remain split on overnight radiational cooling. Environment Canada currently forecasts a cloudy night with a 30% shower chance and a minimum near 17 °C, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and the Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights warm, thundery conditions through the 22–26 window that could limit clear-sky cooling. Key differentiators include the timing and extent of any cloud breaks, wind speeds that suppress surface inversions, and the precise track of an upper-level disturbance; even modest clearing could drop readings several degrees below climatological norms of 15–16 °C, whereas persistent cloud or a warmer air mass would keep lows in the upper teens. Resolution hinges on the final observational minimum reported for the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 26?
19°C or higher 95%
9°C or below 94%
12°C 49%
10°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
94%
10°C
44%
11°C
44%
12°C
49%
13°C
25%
14°C
25%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C or higher
95%
19°C or higher 95%
9°C or below 94%
12°C 49%
10°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
94%
10°C
$5 Vol.
44%
11°C
$5 Vol.
44%
12°C
$5 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see roughly equal 48.5% implied probabilities on a Toronto low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher for August 26 because official guidance and ensemble models remain split on overnight radiational cooling. Environment Canada currently forecasts a cloudy night with a 30% shower chance and a minimum near 17 °C, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and the Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights warm, thundery conditions through the 22–26 window that could limit clear-sky cooling. Key differentiators include the timing and extent of any cloud breaks, wind speeds that suppress surface inversions, and the precise track of an upper-level disturbance; even modest clearing could drop readings several degrees below climatological norms of 15–16 °C, whereas persistent cloud or a warmer air mass would keep lows in the upper teens. Resolution hinges on the final observational minimum reported for the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see roughly equal 48.5% implied probabilities on a Toronto low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher for August 26 because official guidance and ensemble models remain split on overnight radiational cooling. Environment Canada currently forecasts a cloudy night with a 30% shower chance and a minimum near 17 °C, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and the Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights warm, thundery conditions through the 22–26 window that could limit clear-sky cooling. Key differentiators include the timing and extent of any cloud breaks, wind speeds that suppress surface inversions, and the precise track of an upper-level disturbance; even modest clearing could drop readings several degrees below climatological norms of 15–16 °C, whereas persistent cloud or a warmer air mass would keep lows in the upper teens. Resolution hinges on the final observational minimum reported for the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see roughly equal 48.5% implied probabilities on a Toronto low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher for August 26 because official guidance and ensemble models remain split on overnight radiational cooling. Environment Canada currently forecasts a cloudy night with a 30% shower chance and a minimum near 17 °C, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and the Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights warm, thundery conditions through the 22–26 window that could limit clear-sky cooling. Key differentiators include the timing and extent of any cloud breaks, wind speeds that suppress surface inversions, and the precise track of an upper-level disturbance; even modest clearing could drop readings several degrees below climatological norms of 15–16 °C, whereas persistent cloud or a warmer air mass would keep lows in the upper teens. Resolution hinges on the final observational minimum reported for the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions