Recent model guidance and official forecasts from Environment Canada point to a post-frontal northwest flow and clearing skies overnight into August 25, promoting radiational cooling under light winds and dew points near 14°C. This setup, following Monday’s below-average high of 20°C and showers, has shifted the air mass cooler than the 17°C seasonal average low for the date. Ensemble spreads show potential for the minimum to dip to 11–14°C if skies clear fully and winds remain calm, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability on 11°C or below while capping upside risk above 17°C absent warmer advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
11°C or below 87%
12°C 41%
21°C or higher 29%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
87%
12°C
41%
13°C
22%
14°C
23%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
7%
19°C
6%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
29%
11°C or below 87%
12°C 41%
21°C or higher 29%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
$135 Vol.
87%
12°C
$5 Vol.
41%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$4 Vol.
6%
20°C
$5 Vol.
11%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and official forecasts from Environment Canada point to a post-frontal northwest flow and clearing skies overnight into August 25, promoting radiational cooling under light winds and dew points near 14°C. This setup, following Monday’s below-average high of 20°C and showers, has shifted the air mass cooler than the 17°C seasonal average low for the date. Ensemble spreads show potential for the minimum to dip to 11–14°C if skies clear fully and winds remain calm, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability on 11°C or below while capping upside risk above 17°C absent warmer advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$154End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and official forecasts from Environment Canada point to a post-frontal northwest flow and clearing skies overnight into August 25, promoting radiational cooling under light winds and dew points near 14°C. This setup, following Monday’s below-average high of 20°C and showers, has shifted the air mass cooler than the 17°C seasonal average low for the date. Ensemble spreads show potential for the minimum to dip to 11–14°C if skies clear fully and winds remain calm, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability on 11°C or below while capping upside risk above 17°C absent warmer advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$154End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance and official forecasts from Environment Canada point to a post-frontal northwest flow and clearing skies overnight into August 25, promoting radiational cooling under light winds and dew points near 14°C. This setup, following Monday’s below-average high of 20°C and showers, has shifted the air mass cooler than the 17°C seasonal average low for the date. Ensemble spreads show potential for the minimum to dip to 11–14°C if skies clear fully and winds remain calm, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability on 11°C or below while capping upside risk above 17°C absent warmer advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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