Persistent marine layer influence and southwesterly upper-level flow are holding San Francisco temperatures near or slightly below the 69.5°F seasonal average for August 23, with National Weather Service forecasts indicating highs in the mid-to-upper 60s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Onshore winds and a stable inversion around 1,000–1,500 feet limit afternoon warming along the immediate coast, consistent with recent days' observations in the mid-60s. This pattern, driven by a cutoff low offshore and the broader ridge-trough balance, favors the 70–73°F range as the most probable outcome while capping upside risk absent a rapid marine layer erosion. The market's modest tilt toward 72–73°F reflects trader weighting of ensemble spreads and historical variability around the mean, with resolution hinging on the official high reported tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
72-73°F 38%
70-71°F 25%
74-75°F 19%
76-77°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
3%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
38%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 38%
70-71°F 25%
74-75°F 19%
76-77°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
$31 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$36 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$261 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$838 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$375 Vol.
38%
74-75°F
$510 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$550 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$226 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$248 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$20 Vol.
1%
84°F or higher
$45 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer influence and southwesterly upper-level flow are holding San Francisco temperatures near or slightly below the 69.5°F seasonal average for August 23, with National Weather Service forecasts indicating highs in the mid-to-upper 60s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Onshore winds and a stable inversion around 1,000–1,500 feet limit afternoon warming along the immediate coast, consistent with recent days' observations in the mid-60s. This pattern, driven by a cutoff low offshore and the broader ridge-trough balance, favors the 70–73°F range as the most probable outcome while capping upside risk absent a rapid marine layer erosion. The market's modest tilt toward 72–73°F reflects trader weighting of ensemble spreads and historical variability around the mean, with resolution hinging on the official high reported tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ET
Volume
$3,136End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer influence and southwesterly upper-level flow are holding San Francisco temperatures near or slightly below the 69.5°F seasonal average for August 23, with National Weather Service forecasts indicating highs in the mid-to-upper 60s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Onshore winds and a stable inversion around 1,000–1,500 feet limit afternoon warming along the immediate coast, consistent with recent days' observations in the mid-60s. This pattern, driven by a cutoff low offshore and the broader ridge-trough balance, favors the 70–73°F range as the most probable outcome while capping upside risk absent a rapid marine layer erosion. The market's modest tilt toward 72–73°F reflects trader weighting of ensemble spreads and historical variability around the mean, with resolution hinging on the official high reported tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,136End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer influence and southwesterly upper-level flow are holding San Francisco temperatures near or slightly below the 69.5°F seasonal average for August 23, with National Weather Service forecasts indicating highs in the mid-to-upper 60s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Onshore winds and a stable inversion around 1,000–1,500 feet limit afternoon warming along the immediate coast, consistent with recent days' observations in the mid-60s. This pattern, driven by a cutoff low offshore and the broader ridge-trough balance, favors the 70–73°F range as the most probable outcome while capping upside risk absent a rapid marine layer erosion. The market's modest tilt toward 72–73°F reflects trader weighting of ensemble spreads and historical variability around the mean, with resolution hinging on the official high reported tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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