Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models points to mostly fine conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover over Wellington on August 24, supporting a daytime maximum near the seasonal average of 13–15 °C. A preceding period of southerly flow has kept temperatures suppressed, but high-pressure building in the Tasman Sea is expected to moderate the airmass and reduce shower activity, limiting upside to 16 °C or higher. Historical climatology shows late-August maxima rarely exceed 16 °C without strong northerly advection, which current model consensus does not favor. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 14–15 °C therefore reflects both the expected steering pattern and the narrow range of outcomes typical for this date under near-average winter conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
15°C 54%
14°C 31%
16°C 18%
13°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
4%
14°C
28%
15°C
54%
16°C
18%
17°C
3%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 54%
14°C 31%
16°C 18%
13°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$37 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$79 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$104 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$106 Vol.
4%
14°C
$187 Vol.
28%
15°C
$141 Vol.
54%
16°C
$193 Vol.
18%
17°C
$174 Vol.
3%
18°C
$5 Vol.
3%
19°C or higher
$37 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models points to mostly fine conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover over Wellington on August 24, supporting a daytime maximum near the seasonal average of 13–15 °C. A preceding period of southerly flow has kept temperatures suppressed, but high-pressure building in the Tasman Sea is expected to moderate the airmass and reduce shower activity, limiting upside to 16 °C or higher. Historical climatology shows late-August maxima rarely exceed 16 °C without strong northerly advection, which current model consensus does not favor. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 14–15 °C therefore reflects both the expected steering pattern and the narrow range of outcomes typical for this date under near-average winter conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,103End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models points to mostly fine conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover over Wellington on August 24, supporting a daytime maximum near the seasonal average of 13–15 °C. A preceding period of southerly flow has kept temperatures suppressed, but high-pressure building in the Tasman Sea is expected to moderate the airmass and reduce shower activity, limiting upside to 16 °C or higher. Historical climatology shows late-August maxima rarely exceed 16 °C without strong northerly advection, which current model consensus does not favor. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 14–15 °C therefore reflects both the expected steering pattern and the narrow range of outcomes typical for this date under near-average winter conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,103End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models points to mostly fine conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover over Wellington on August 24, supporting a daytime maximum near the seasonal average of 13–15 °C. A preceding period of southerly flow has kept temperatures suppressed, but high-pressure building in the Tasman Sea is expected to moderate the airmass and reduce shower activity, limiting upside to 16 °C or higher. Historical climatology shows late-August maxima rarely exceed 16 °C without strong northerly advection, which current model consensus does not favor. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 14–15 °C therefore reflects both the expected steering pattern and the narrow range of outcomes typical for this date under near-average winter conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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