Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to a minimum near 11–12°C in Wellington on August 26 amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet the closely matched market probabilities reflect lingering uncertainty over radiative cooling under clear patches or a late southerly surge. Key differentiators include surface wind speeds that limit nocturnal temperature drops through turbulent mixing, cloud cover that traps longwave radiation, and the strength of any incoming polar air mass, which NIWA notes has already produced colder-than-average conditions earlier in August. Official guidance shows typical August overnight lows near 9–11°C, but short-term model runs can shift the precise minimum by 2–3°C depending on frontal timing and high-pressure setup. Traders are thus weighting the potential for enhanced cooling against the current milder trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
8°C or below 69%
10°C 49%
14°C 49%
18°C or higher 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
69%
9°C
11%
10°C
49%
11°C
28%
12°C
30%
13°C
28%
14°C
49%
15°C
8%
16°C
1%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
34%
8°C or below 69%
10°C 49%
14°C 49%
18°C or higher 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
9°C
$0 Vol.
11%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
30%
13°C
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to a minimum near 11–12°C in Wellington on August 26 amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet the closely matched market probabilities reflect lingering uncertainty over radiative cooling under clear patches or a late southerly surge. Key differentiators include surface wind speeds that limit nocturnal temperature drops through turbulent mixing, cloud cover that traps longwave radiation, and the strength of any incoming polar air mass, which NIWA notes has already produced colder-than-average conditions earlier in August. Official guidance shows typical August overnight lows near 9–11°C, but short-term model runs can shift the precise minimum by 2–3°C depending on frontal timing and high-pressure setup. Traders are thus weighting the potential for enhanced cooling against the current milder trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to a minimum near 11–12°C in Wellington on August 26 amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet the closely matched market probabilities reflect lingering uncertainty over radiative cooling under clear patches or a late southerly surge. Key differentiators include surface wind speeds that limit nocturnal temperature drops through turbulent mixing, cloud cover that traps longwave radiation, and the strength of any incoming polar air mass, which NIWA notes has already produced colder-than-average conditions earlier in August. Official guidance shows typical August overnight lows near 9–11°C, but short-term model runs can shift the precise minimum by 2–3°C depending on frontal timing and high-pressure setup. Traders are thus weighting the potential for enhanced cooling against the current milder trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to a minimum near 11–12°C in Wellington on August 26 amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet the closely matched market probabilities reflect lingering uncertainty over radiative cooling under clear patches or a late southerly surge. Key differentiators include surface wind speeds that limit nocturnal temperature drops through turbulent mixing, cloud cover that traps longwave radiation, and the strength of any incoming polar air mass, which NIWA notes has already produced colder-than-average conditions earlier in August. Official guidance shows typical August overnight lows near 9–11°C, but short-term model runs can shift the precise minimum by 2–3°C depending on frontal timing and high-pressure setup. Traders are thus weighting the potential for enhanced cooling against the current milder trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions