Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a shift toward increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms over Tokyo on August 27, following several days of highs near 33–35°C. This pattern, driven by a passing frontal system, introduces uncertainty in the exact daytime maximum, with models showing a spread between roughly 28–32°C depending on the timing and coverage of precipitation that can suppress peak heating. Trader consensus clustering tightly around 30–32°C reflects this model divergence and the narrow window before resolution, consistent with typical late-summer variability where convective activity often limits temperatures below seasonal averages of 31°C. Updated ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
31°C 30%
30°C 26%
32°C 20%
33°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
26%
31°C
30%
32°C
20%
33°C
13%
34°C
6%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 30%
30°C 26%
32°C 20%
33°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
27°C or below
$61 Vol.
2%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
12%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$5 Vol.
30%
32°C
$10 Vol.
20%
33°C
$20 Vol.
13%
34°C
$0 Vol.
6%
35°C
$0 Vol.
3%
36°C
$175 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$141 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a shift toward increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms over Tokyo on August 27, following several days of highs near 33–35°C. This pattern, driven by a passing frontal system, introduces uncertainty in the exact daytime maximum, with models showing a spread between roughly 28–32°C depending on the timing and coverage of precipitation that can suppress peak heating. Trader consensus clustering tightly around 30–32°C reflects this model divergence and the narrow window before resolution, consistent with typical late-summer variability where convective activity often limits temperatures below seasonal averages of 31°C. Updated ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$416End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a shift toward increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms over Tokyo on August 27, following several days of highs near 33–35°C. This pattern, driven by a passing frontal system, introduces uncertainty in the exact daytime maximum, with models showing a spread between roughly 28–32°C depending on the timing and coverage of precipitation that can suppress peak heating. Trader consensus clustering tightly around 30–32°C reflects this model divergence and the narrow window before resolution, consistent with typical late-summer variability where convective activity often limits temperatures below seasonal averages of 31°C. Updated ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$416End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a shift toward increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms over Tokyo on August 27, following several days of highs near 33–35°C. This pattern, driven by a passing frontal system, introduces uncertainty in the exact daytime maximum, with models showing a spread between roughly 28–32°C depending on the timing and coverage of precipitation that can suppress peak heating. Trader consensus clustering tightly around 30–32°C reflects this model divergence and the narrow window before resolution, consistent with typical late-summer variability where convective activity often limits temperatures below seasonal averages of 31°C. Updated ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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