Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 24–26°C range for Manila’s lowest temperature on August 29. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds that limit nighttime radiational cooling and compress the diurnal range. High humidity near 90% and ongoing precipitation further stabilize minimum temperatures near the seasonal climatological floor of ~25°C. Model spread centers on whether enhanced monsoon flow or localized clearing allows a dip to 24°C or holds the low at 26°C, with traders assigning nearly equal implied probabilities to these adjacent outcomes based on the latest model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
28°C 48%
29°C 48%
21°C or below 45%
31°C or higher 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
45%
22°C
11%
23°C
25%
24°C
27%
25°C
29%
26°C
27%
27°C
25%
28°C
48%
29°C
48%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
44%
28°C 48%
29°C 48%
21°C or below 45%
31°C or higher 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
45%
22°C
$0 Vol.
11%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$5 Vol.
48%
29°C
$5 Vol.
48%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 24–26°C range for Manila’s lowest temperature on August 29. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds that limit nighttime radiational cooling and compress the diurnal range. High humidity near 90% and ongoing precipitation further stabilize minimum temperatures near the seasonal climatological floor of ~25°C. Model spread centers on whether enhanced monsoon flow or localized clearing allows a dip to 24°C or holds the low at 26°C, with traders assigning nearly equal implied probabilities to these adjacent outcomes based on the latest model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 24–26°C range for Manila’s lowest temperature on August 29. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds that limit nighttime radiational cooling and compress the diurnal range. High humidity near 90% and ongoing precipitation further stabilize minimum temperatures near the seasonal climatological floor of ~25°C. Model spread centers on whether enhanced monsoon flow or localized clearing allows a dip to 24°C or holds the low at 26°C, with traders assigning nearly equal implied probabilities to these adjacent outcomes based on the latest model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, including Metro Manila, continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 24–26°C range for Manila’s lowest temperature on August 29. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds that limit nighttime radiational cooling and compress the diurnal range. High humidity near 90% and ongoing precipitation further stabilize minimum temperatures near the seasonal climatological floor of ~25°C. Model spread centers on whether enhanced monsoon flow or localized clearing allows a dip to 24°C or holds the low at 26°C, with traders assigning nearly equal implied probabilities to these adjacent outcomes based on the latest model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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