Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NOAA-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on August 29 under a stable high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds and minimal cloud cover promoting strong daytime radiative heating. This setup supports afternoon highs clustered around 29–31 °C, explaining the near-even market split between the 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread due to consistent steering patterns and dry air masses, while historical August climatology for the region places typical maxima near 30.7 °C. Updated runs tomorrow morning and real-time observations from stations like Buen Retiro will refine the exact peak, with any unexpected moisture or wind shifts able to alter the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
31°C 46%
30°C 43%
32°C 9%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
43%
31°C
46%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 46%
30°C 43%
32°C 9%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
$285 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$117 Vol.
2%
29°C
$532 Vol.
4%
30°C
$900 Vol.
43%
31°C
$934 Vol.
46%
32°C
$339 Vol.
9%
33°C
$243 Vol.
2%
34°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$96 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NOAA-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on August 29 under a stable high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds and minimal cloud cover promoting strong daytime radiative heating. This setup supports afternoon highs clustered around 29–31 °C, explaining the near-even market split between the 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread due to consistent steering patterns and dry air masses, while historical August climatology for the region places typical maxima near 30.7 °C. Updated runs tomorrow morning and real-time observations from stations like Buen Retiro will refine the exact peak, with any unexpected moisture or wind shifts able to alter the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,820End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NOAA-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on August 29 under a stable high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds and minimal cloud cover promoting strong daytime radiative heating. This setup supports afternoon highs clustered around 29–31 °C, explaining the near-even market split between the 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread due to consistent steering patterns and dry air masses, while historical August climatology for the region places typical maxima near 30.7 °C. Updated runs tomorrow morning and real-time observations from stations like Buen Retiro will refine the exact peak, with any unexpected moisture or wind shifts able to alter the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,820End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NOAA-aligned sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on August 29 under a stable high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds and minimal cloud cover promoting strong daytime radiative heating. This setup supports afternoon highs clustered around 29–31 °C, explaining the near-even market split between the 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread due to consistent steering patterns and dry air masses, while historical August climatology for the region places typical maxima near 30.7 °C. Updated runs tomorrow morning and real-time observations from stations like Buen Retiro will refine the exact peak, with any unexpected moisture or wind shifts able to alter the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions