Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a typical late-summer subtropical pattern with highs likely between 32–34 °C on August 29, amid high humidity near 80–90 %, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover that limits peak heating. Multiple models show consensus around 33–34 °C, with rain timing and intensity creating the main uncertainty—stronger convective activity can cap temperatures below 33 °C while clearer breaks allow brief spikes toward 35 °C. This narrow spread explains the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–34 °C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from regional meteorological services against historical August maxima near 32 °C and the suppressive effect of ongoing monsoon moisture. Updated model runs and morning observations on the 28th will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 29?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 29?
33°C 26%
34°C 26%
32°C 21%
35°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
10%
32°C
21%
33°C
26%
34°C
26%
35°C
17%
36°C
8%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 26%
34°C 26%
32°C 21%
35°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
27°C or below
$246 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$134 Vol.
1%
30°C
$46 Vol.
2%
31°C
$35 Vol.
10%
32°C
$26 Vol.
21%
33°C
$110 Vol.
26%
34°C
$29 Vol.
26%
35°C
$36 Vol.
17%
36°C
$40 Vol.
8%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a typical late-summer subtropical pattern with highs likely between 32–34 °C on August 29, amid high humidity near 80–90 %, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover that limits peak heating. Multiple models show consensus around 33–34 °C, with rain timing and intensity creating the main uncertainty—stronger convective activity can cap temperatures below 33 °C while clearer breaks allow brief spikes toward 35 °C. This narrow spread explains the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–34 °C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from regional meteorological services against historical August maxima near 32 °C and the suppressive effect of ongoing monsoon moisture. Updated model runs and morning observations on the 28th will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$780End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a typical late-summer subtropical pattern with highs likely between 32–34 °C on August 29, amid high humidity near 80–90 %, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover that limits peak heating. Multiple models show consensus around 33–34 °C, with rain timing and intensity creating the main uncertainty—stronger convective activity can cap temperatures below 33 °C while clearer breaks allow brief spikes toward 35 °C. This narrow spread explains the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–34 °C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from regional meteorological services against historical August maxima near 32 °C and the suppressive effect of ongoing monsoon moisture. Updated model runs and morning observations on the 28th will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$780End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a typical late-summer subtropical pattern with highs likely between 32–34 °C on August 29, amid high humidity near 80–90 %, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover that limits peak heating. Multiple models show consensus around 33–34 °C, with rain timing and intensity creating the main uncertainty—stronger convective activity can cap temperatures below 33 °C while clearer breaks allow brief spikes toward 35 °C. This narrow spread explains the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–34 °C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from regional meteorological services against historical August maxima near 32 °C and the suppressive effect of ongoing monsoon moisture. Updated model runs and morning observations on the 28th will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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