Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought already present across multiple states including Oklahoma, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the Southern Plains and Intermountain West, driven by persistent high pressure, extreme heat exceeding 100°F, and rapid soil moisture declines. A strengthening El Niño—now forecast with over 90% chance of very strong conditions into early 2027—typically favors drier Northwest and variable Plains patterns this season, supporting trader focus on persistence versus limited monsoon relief in the Southwest. Short-term CPC outlooks and NMME guidance indicate continued expansion risks through early September, while model spread on precipitation timing creates uncertainty between 5–9 versus 10+ states meeting the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?
10 or more states 44%
5-6 states 39%
7-9 states 38%
0 states 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
0 states
27%
1-2 states
26%
3-4 states
26%
5-6 states
39%
7-9 states
38%
10 or more states
44%
10 or more states 44%
5-6 states 39%
7-9 states 38%
0 states 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
0 states
$1 Vol.
27%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
26%
3-4 states
$1 Vol.
26%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
39%
7-9 states
$1 Vol.
38%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought already present across multiple states including Oklahoma, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the Southern Plains and Intermountain West, driven by persistent high pressure, extreme heat exceeding 100°F, and rapid soil moisture declines. A strengthening El Niño—now forecast with over 90% chance of very strong conditions into early 2027—typically favors drier Northwest and variable Plains patterns this season, supporting trader focus on persistence versus limited monsoon relief in the Southwest. Short-term CPC outlooks and NMME guidance indicate continued expansion risks through early September, while model spread on precipitation timing creates uncertainty between 5–9 versus 10+ states meeting the threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought already present across multiple states including Oklahoma, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the Southern Plains and Intermountain West, driven by persistent high pressure, extreme heat exceeding 100°F, and rapid soil moisture declines. A strengthening El Niño—now forecast with over 90% chance of very strong conditions into early 2027—typically favors drier Northwest and variable Plains patterns this season, supporting trader focus on persistence versus limited monsoon relief in the Southwest. Short-term CPC outlooks and NMME guidance indicate continued expansion risks through early September, while model spread on precipitation timing creates uncertainty between 5–9 versus 10+ states meeting the threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought already present across multiple states including Oklahoma, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the Southern Plains and Intermountain West, driven by persistent high pressure, extreme heat exceeding 100°F, and rapid soil moisture declines. A strengthening El Niño—now forecast with over 90% chance of very strong conditions into early 2027—typically favors drier Northwest and variable Plains patterns this season, supporting trader focus on persistence versus limited monsoon relief in the Southwest. Short-term CPC outlooks and NMME guidance indicate continued expansion risks through early September, while model spread on precipitation timing creates uncertainty between 5–9 versus 10+ states meeting the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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