**Recent forecasts from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a high of 30–33°C for Guangzhou on August 30, 2026, with widespread cloud cover, moderate to heavy rain, and thunderstorms expected from the peripheral circulation of Typhoon Shadell.** This rain and reduced insolation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, shifting probabilities toward the clustered 32–34°C outcomes (combined ~60% market-implied odds) rather than the historical average high of 33°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread on peak temperature once precipitation timing is accounted for, though slight variations in storm intensity or cloud breaks could nudge readings by 1°C. Traders appear to price in these atmospheric dynamics and the typhoon’s steering influence as the key near-term catalysts ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 30?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 30?
33°C 25%
34°C 24%
32°C 21%
36°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
16%
31°C
11%
32°C
21%
33°C
25%
34°C
24%
35°C
13%
36°C
19%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 25%
34°C 24%
32°C 21%
36°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
16%
31°C
$23 Vol.
11%
32°C
$0 Vol.
21%
33°C
$0 Vol.
25%
34°C
$0 Vol.
24%
35°C
$2 Vol.
13%
36°C
$5 Vol.
19%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a high of 30–33°C for Guangzhou on August 30, 2026, with widespread cloud cover, moderate to heavy rain, and thunderstorms expected from the peripheral circulation of Typhoon Shadell.** This rain and reduced insolation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, shifting probabilities toward the clustered 32–34°C outcomes (combined ~60% market-implied odds) rather than the historical average high of 33°C.
Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread on peak temperature once precipitation timing is accounted for, though slight variations in storm intensity or cloud breaks could nudge readings by 1°C. Traders appear to price in these atmospheric dynamics and the typhoon’s steering influence as the key near-term catalysts ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a high of 30–33°C for Guangzhou on August 30, 2026, with widespread cloud cover, moderate to heavy rain, and thunderstorms expected from the peripheral circulation of Typhoon Shadell.** This rain and reduced insolation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, shifting probabilities toward the clustered 32–34°C outcomes (combined ~60% market-implied odds) rather than the historical average high of 33°C.
Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread on peak temperature once precipitation timing is accounted for, though slight variations in storm intensity or cloud breaks could nudge readings by 1°C. Traders appear to price in these atmospheric dynamics and the typhoon’s steering influence as the key near-term catalysts ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a high of 30–33°C for Guangzhou on August 30, 2026, with widespread cloud cover, moderate to heavy rain, and thunderstorms expected from the peripheral circulation of Typhoon Shadell.** This rain and reduced insolation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, shifting probabilities toward the clustered 32–34°C outcomes (combined ~60% market-implied odds) rather than the historical average high of 33°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread on peak temperature once precipitation timing is accounted for, though slight variations in storm intensity or cloud breaks could nudge readings by 1°C. Traders appear to price in these atmospheric dynamics and the typhoon’s steering influence as the key near-term catalysts ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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