Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will dominate Madrid on August 28, with southwest flow and clearing skies after Thursday’s cooler, cloudier conditions yielding a daytime high near 25–27 °C. This pattern—driven by a passing trough and below-average 850 hPa temperatures—keeps readings well below the late-August climatological normal of ~30–31 °C. Official guidance and ensemble consensus show little spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in clearing. Trader positioning therefore clusters tightly on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the narrow, evidence-based range supported by current observational trends and short-range model agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
27°C 45%
28°C 24%
26°C 23%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
8%
26°C
23%
27°C
45%
28°C
24%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 45%
28°C 24%
26°C 23%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C
$113 Vol.
1%
25°C
$43 Vol.
8%
26°C
$139 Vol.
23%
27°C
$113 Vol.
45%
28°C
$125 Vol.
24%
29°C
$10 Vol.
7%
30°C
$5 Vol.
4%
31°C
$5 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will dominate Madrid on August 28, with southwest flow and clearing skies after Thursday’s cooler, cloudier conditions yielding a daytime high near 25–27 °C. This pattern—driven by a passing trough and below-average 850 hPa temperatures—keeps readings well below the late-August climatological normal of ~30–31 °C. Official guidance and ensemble consensus show little spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in clearing. Trader positioning therefore clusters tightly on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the narrow, evidence-based range supported by current observational trends and short-range model agreement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$567End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will dominate Madrid on August 28, with southwest flow and clearing skies after Thursday’s cooler, cloudier conditions yielding a daytime high near 25–27 °C. This pattern—driven by a passing trough and below-average 850 hPa temperatures—keeps readings well below the late-August climatological normal of ~30–31 °C. Official guidance and ensemble consensus show little spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in clearing. Trader positioning therefore clusters tightly on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the narrow, evidence-based range supported by current observational trends and short-range model agreement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$567End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will dominate Madrid on August 28, with southwest flow and clearing skies after Thursday’s cooler, cloudier conditions yielding a daytime high near 25–27 °C. This pattern—driven by a passing trough and below-average 850 hPa temperatures—keeps readings well below the late-August climatological normal of ~30–31 °C. Official guidance and ensemble consensus show little spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in clearing. Trader positioning therefore clusters tightly on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the narrow, evidence-based range supported by current observational trends and short-range model agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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