**Forecast models indicate a likely overnight low in Madrid around 11–13°C on August 28, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds (roughly 44% each for 11°C, 12°C, and 13°C).** A cool, drier air mass arrived with showers and cloud cover on August 27, lowering daytime highs and setting up favorable conditions for strong nighttime radiative cooling under mostly clear skies the following night. Light southwesterly winds (generally 2–4 m/s) and low dew points near 7–10°C support efficient heat loss from the surface, allowing temperatures to fall well below the seasonal average low of ~18°C. Model consensus from sources like GFS, ECMWF-influenced guidance, and official outlooks points to the minimum occurring near dawn (around 6–8 a.m. local time), with slight differences in exact timing, local microclimates (e.g., urban heat island effects at the measuring station), and boundary-layer mixing explaining the narrow spread across 11–13°C outcomes. Clear conditions and weak pressure gradients minimize variability, but small shifts in cloud timing or wind could push the low 1–2°C either way. Higher outcomes (15°C+) carry lower odds as they would require more mixing or residual moisture, while sub-10°C readings remain unlikely given the current air mass. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing this tight range, with resolution hinging on the official station minimum.