Forecast model divergence over cloud cover, wind patterns, and radiative cooling potential currently anchors trader sentiment for Madrid’s August 27 minimum temperature, with outcomes clustered near 15–23 °C each carrying roughly 20–25 % implied probability. Clear, calm high-pressure conditions favor stronger nocturnal heat loss and lower readings near 13–15 °C, while increased moisture or moderate southwesterly flow could limit cooling and push values toward 20 °C or higher. Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 15–18 °C, yet recent model runs highlight sensitivity to evolving synoptic features ahead of the weekend. Updated guidance from European and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
21°C 51%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 48%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
37%
14°C
19%
15°C
48%
16°C
48%
17°C
25%
18°C
26%
19°C
25%
20°C
43%
21°C
51%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
50%
21°C 51%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 48%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
37%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
48%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
43%
21°C
$0 Vol.
51%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model divergence over cloud cover, wind patterns, and radiative cooling potential currently anchors trader sentiment for Madrid’s August 27 minimum temperature, with outcomes clustered near 15–23 °C each carrying roughly 20–25 % implied probability. Clear, calm high-pressure conditions favor stronger nocturnal heat loss and lower readings near 13–15 °C, while increased moisture or moderate southwesterly flow could limit cooling and push values toward 20 °C or higher. Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 15–18 °C, yet recent model runs highlight sensitivity to evolving synoptic features ahead of the weekend. Updated guidance from European and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model divergence over cloud cover, wind patterns, and radiative cooling potential currently anchors trader sentiment for Madrid’s August 27 minimum temperature, with outcomes clustered near 15–23 °C each carrying roughly 20–25 % implied probability. Clear, calm high-pressure conditions favor stronger nocturnal heat loss and lower readings near 13–15 °C, while increased moisture or moderate southwesterly flow could limit cooling and push values toward 20 °C or higher. Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 15–18 °C, yet recent model runs highlight sensitivity to evolving synoptic features ahead of the weekend. Updated guidance from European and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model divergence over cloud cover, wind patterns, and radiative cooling potential currently anchors trader sentiment for Madrid’s August 27 minimum temperature, with outcomes clustered near 15–23 °C each carrying roughly 20–25 % implied probability. Clear, calm high-pressure conditions favor stronger nocturnal heat loss and lower readings near 13–15 °C, while increased moisture or moderate southwesterly flow could limit cooling and push values toward 20 °C or higher. Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 15–18 °C, yet recent model runs highlight sensitivity to evolving synoptic features ahead of the weekend. Updated guidance from European and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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