Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate a clear, calm night over Madrid on August 28–29, 2026, with radiative cooling under high pressure favoring a minimum near 12–16 °C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 18.2 °C for the date. A cooler-than-normal August pattern, including a 16.3 °C low on the 27th, has reinforced trader expectations for enhanced nocturnal cooling. Model consensus points to light variable winds and dew points around 10 °C, limiting mixing and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 11 °C or below (43 % implied probability). Any late-model shift toward stronger southerly flow or increased cloud cover could raise the floor and shift probability toward the 13–15 °C bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
11°C or below 44%
12°C 27%
13°C 27%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
44%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
24%
16°C
8%
17°C
14%
18°C
11%
19°C
13%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
11°C or below 44%
12°C 27%
13°C 27%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$6 Vol.
44%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
8%
17°C
$10 Vol.
14%
18°C
$5 Vol.
11%
19°C
$5 Vol.
13%
20°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate a clear, calm night over Madrid on August 28–29, 2026, with radiative cooling under high pressure favoring a minimum near 12–16 °C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 18.2 °C for the date. A cooler-than-normal August pattern, including a 16.3 °C low on the 27th, has reinforced trader expectations for enhanced nocturnal cooling. Model consensus points to light variable winds and dew points around 10 °C, limiting mixing and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 11 °C or below (43 % implied probability). Any late-model shift toward stronger southerly flow or increased cloud cover could raise the floor and shift probability toward the 13–15 °C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$36End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate a clear, calm night over Madrid on August 28–29, 2026, with radiative cooling under high pressure favoring a minimum near 12–16 °C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 18.2 °C for the date. A cooler-than-normal August pattern, including a 16.3 °C low on the 27th, has reinforced trader expectations for enhanced nocturnal cooling. Model consensus points to light variable winds and dew points around 10 °C, limiting mixing and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 11 °C or below (43 % implied probability). Any late-model shift toward stronger southerly flow or increased cloud cover could raise the floor and shift probability toward the 13–15 °C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET and European models indicate a clear, calm night over Madrid on August 28–29, 2026, with radiative cooling under high pressure favoring a minimum near 12–16 °C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 18.2 °C for the date. A cooler-than-normal August pattern, including a 16.3 °C low on the 27th, has reinforced trader expectations for enhanced nocturnal cooling. Model consensus points to light variable winds and dew points around 10 °C, limiting mixing and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 11 °C or below (43 % implied probability). Any late-model shift toward stronger southerly flow or increased cloud cover could raise the floor and shift probability toward the 13–15 °C bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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