Clear skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure system over central Spain are the main drivers keeping Madrid's expected overnight minimum on August 30 near the 15–19 °C range, with model consensus from recent GFS runs pointing to efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32 °C. Recent observations show a cooling trend, with the 16.3 °C minimum on August 27 reflecting drier air masses that reduce cloud cover and enhance heat loss, while the historical average low of 18.1 °C for the date provides a baseline traders weigh against short-term model spreads. Urban heat-island effects in the city center and subtle variations in dew-point forecasts create the tight clustering of implied probabilities across 13–23 °C bins, as even small shifts in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture could alter the exact low by 1–2 °C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
17°C 49%
18°C 49%
19°C 49%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
27%
14°C
29%
15°C
30%
16°C
48%
17°C
49%
18°C
49%
19°C
49%
20°C
19%
21°C
19%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
7%
17°C 49%
18°C 49%
19°C 49%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$5 Vol.
19%
22°C
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure system over central Spain are the main drivers keeping Madrid's expected overnight minimum on August 30 near the 15–19 °C range, with model consensus from recent GFS runs pointing to efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32 °C. Recent observations show a cooling trend, with the 16.3 °C minimum on August 27 reflecting drier air masses that reduce cloud cover and enhance heat loss, while the historical average low of 18.1 °C for the date provides a baseline traders weigh against short-term model spreads. Urban heat-island effects in the city center and subtle variations in dew-point forecasts create the tight clustering of implied probabilities across 13–23 °C bins, as even small shifts in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture could alter the exact low by 1–2 °C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure system over central Spain are the main drivers keeping Madrid's expected overnight minimum on August 30 near the 15–19 °C range, with model consensus from recent GFS runs pointing to efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32 °C. Recent observations show a cooling trend, with the 16.3 °C minimum on August 27 reflecting drier air masses that reduce cloud cover and enhance heat loss, while the historical average low of 18.1 °C for the date provides a baseline traders weigh against short-term model spreads. Urban heat-island effects in the city center and subtle variations in dew-point forecasts create the tight clustering of implied probabilities across 13–23 °C bins, as even small shifts in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture could alter the exact low by 1–2 °C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure system over central Spain are the main drivers keeping Madrid's expected overnight minimum on August 30 near the 15–19 °C range, with model consensus from recent GFS runs pointing to efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32 °C. Recent observations show a cooling trend, with the 16.3 °C minimum on August 27 reflecting drier air masses that reduce cloud cover and enhance heat loss, while the historical average low of 18.1 °C for the date provides a baseline traders weigh against short-term model spreads. Urban heat-island effects in the city center and subtle variations in dew-point forecasts create the tight clustering of implied probabilities across 13–23 °C bins, as even small shifts in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture could alter the exact low by 1–2 °C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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