Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerating into a post-tropical wave within 24 hours of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment, conditions linked to broader El Niño influences. The system, now moving west-northwest at around 25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, lacks a closed circulation and shows no signs of reorganization, with NHC development odds at just 10% over the next seven days. Warm sea surface temperatures persist but are offset by these atmospheric barriers, consistent with historical patterns where early-season Atlantic systems struggle to intensify without low shear. While most models project continued weakening and dissipation, a narrow window for redevelopment exists if the remnants encounter reduced shear near the Bahamas or western Atlantic next week, though current guidance indicates this remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerating into a post-tropical wave within 24 hours of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment, conditions linked to broader El Niño influences. The system, now moving west-northwest at around 25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, lacks a closed circulation and shows no signs of reorganization, with NHC development odds at just 10% over the next seven days. Warm sea surface temperatures persist but are offset by these atmospheric barriers, consistent with historical patterns where early-season Atlantic systems struggle to intensify without low shear. While most models project continued weakening and dissipation, a narrow window for redevelopment exists if the remnants encounter reduced shear near the Bahamas or western Atlantic next week, though current guidance indicates this remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$290End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerating into a post-tropical wave within 24 hours of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment, conditions linked to broader El Niño influences. The system, now moving west-northwest at around 25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, lacks a closed circulation and shows no signs of reorganization, with NHC development odds at just 10% over the next seven days. Warm sea surface temperatures persist but are offset by these atmospheric barriers, consistent with historical patterns where early-season Atlantic systems struggle to intensify without low shear. While most models project continued weakening and dissipation, a narrow window for redevelopment exists if the remnants encounter reduced shear near the Bahamas or western Atlantic next week, though current guidance indicates this remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$290End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerating into a post-tropical wave within 24 hours of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment, conditions linked to broader El Niño influences. The system, now moving west-northwest at around 25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, lacks a closed circulation and shows no signs of reorganization, with NHC development odds at just 10% over the next seven days. Warm sea surface temperatures persist but are offset by these atmospheric barriers, consistent with historical patterns where early-season Atlantic systems struggle to intensify without low shear. While most models project continued weakening and dissipation, a narrow window for redevelopment exists if the remnants encounter reduced shear near the Bahamas or western Atlantic next week, though current guidance indicates this remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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