Trader consensus centers on 64–69°F as the most probable range for San Francisco’s August 31 high, driven by persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer that has kept recent Bay Area temperatures 5–10°F below seasonal normals. National Weather Service guidance through late August shows mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 10–20 mph, and highs confined to the upper 50s–mid 60s, limiting afternoon warming despite typical late-summer solar angles. Model spread around boundary-layer moisture and stratus coverage introduces the modest probability mass at 66–67°F versus 64–65°F. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z/12Z model runs expected over the next 48 hours will further constrain the maximum temperature before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 31?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 31?
66-67°F 32%
64-65°F 24%
68-69°F 20%
60-61°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
9%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
32%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
5%
76°F or higher
5%
66-67°F 32%
64-65°F 24%
68-69°F 20%
60-61°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
57°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
9%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
14%
62-63°F
$11 Vol.
11%
64-65°F
$23 Vol.
24%
66-67°F
$112 Vol.
32%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
20%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
5%
76°F or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 64–69°F as the most probable range for San Francisco’s August 31 high, driven by persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer that has kept recent Bay Area temperatures 5–10°F below seasonal normals. National Weather Service guidance through late August shows mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 10–20 mph, and highs confined to the upper 50s–mid 60s, limiting afternoon warming despite typical late-summer solar angles. Model spread around boundary-layer moisture and stratus coverage introduces the modest probability mass at 66–67°F versus 64–65°F. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z/12Z model runs expected over the next 48 hours will further constrain the maximum temperature before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$146End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 64–69°F as the most probable range for San Francisco’s August 31 high, driven by persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer that has kept recent Bay Area temperatures 5–10°F below seasonal normals. National Weather Service guidance through late August shows mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 10–20 mph, and highs confined to the upper 50s–mid 60s, limiting afternoon warming despite typical late-summer solar angles. Model spread around boundary-layer moisture and stratus coverage introduces the modest probability mass at 66–67°F versus 64–65°F. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z/12Z model runs expected over the next 48 hours will further constrain the maximum temperature before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$146End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on 64–69°F as the most probable range for San Francisco’s August 31 high, driven by persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer that has kept recent Bay Area temperatures 5–10°F below seasonal normals. National Weather Service guidance through late August shows mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 10–20 mph, and highs confined to the upper 50s–mid 60s, limiting afternoon warming despite typical late-summer solar angles. Model spread around boundary-layer moisture and stratus coverage introduces the modest probability mass at 66–67°F versus 64–65°F. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z/12Z model runs expected over the next 48 hours will further constrain the maximum temperature before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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