**Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston on August 31 projects highs in the mid-to-upper 90s under sunny to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, high humidity, and only a slight chance of afternoon convection.** This pattern aligns with late-August climatology of strong subtropical high pressure and minimal frontal influence, supporting heat indices above 105°F. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed maxima reaching 98–100°F, reinforcing trader focus on the 94–95°F bin as the most probable measured peak at official stations. Minor model spread and the possibility of localized storms or slight timing shifts in peak heating keep 92–93°F as a secondary outcome, while probabilities for 96°F+ remain lower due to lingering forecast uncertainty two days out. Updated NWS runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 31?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 31?
94-95°F 49%
92-93°F 28%
96-97°F 20%
90-91°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
28%
94-95°F
49%
96-97°F
20%
98-99°F
6%
100-101°F
3%
102°F or higher
1%
94-95°F 49%
92-93°F 28%
96-97°F 20%
90-91°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
83°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$40 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
13%
92-93°F
$375 Vol.
28%
94-95°F
$45 Vol.
49%
96-97°F
$264 Vol.
20%
98-99°F
$33 Vol.
6%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
3%
102°F or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston on August 31 projects highs in the mid-to-upper 90s under sunny to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, high humidity, and only a slight chance of afternoon convection.** This pattern aligns with late-August climatology of strong subtropical high pressure and minimal frontal influence, supporting heat indices above 105°F. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed maxima reaching 98–100°F, reinforcing trader focus on the 94–95°F bin as the most probable measured peak at official stations. Minor model spread and the possibility of localized storms or slight timing shifts in peak heating keep 92–93°F as a secondary outcome, while probabilities for 96°F+ remain lower due to lingering forecast uncertainty two days out. Updated NWS runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$758End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston on August 31 projects highs in the mid-to-upper 90s under sunny to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, high humidity, and only a slight chance of afternoon convection.** This pattern aligns with late-August climatology of strong subtropical high pressure and minimal frontal influence, supporting heat indices above 105°F. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed maxima reaching 98–100°F, reinforcing trader focus on the 94–95°F bin as the most probable measured peak at official stations. Minor model spread and the possibility of localized storms or slight timing shifts in peak heating keep 92–93°F as a secondary outcome, while probabilities for 96°F+ remain lower due to lingering forecast uncertainty two days out. Updated NWS runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$758End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston on August 31 projects highs in the mid-to-upper 90s under sunny to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, high humidity, and only a slight chance of afternoon convection.** This pattern aligns with late-August climatology of strong subtropical high pressure and minimal frontal influence, supporting heat indices above 105°F. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed maxima reaching 98–100°F, reinforcing trader focus on the 94–95°F bin as the most probable measured peak at official stations. Minor model spread and the possibility of localized storms or slight timing shifts in peak heating keep 92–93°F as a secondary outcome, while probabilities for 96°F+ remain lower due to lingering forecast uncertainty two days out. Updated NWS runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions