Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin on August 31 points to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, supporting the near-even market split between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F. Above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 August 31 mean high of 94.6 °F reflect persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, while elevated dew points keep heat indices near 110 °F. Small forecast divergences in maximum solar heating or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight probabilities between the two leading bins; later model runs or surface observations on the day itself could shift the exact peak by a degree or two.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 31?
98-99°F 45%
100-101°F 38%
96-97°F 19%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
4%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
45%
100-101°F
38%
102-103°F
11%
104-105°F
17%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 45%
100-101°F 38%
96-97°F 19%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
9%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
4%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
18%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
45%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
38%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
11%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
17%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin on August 31 points to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, supporting the near-even market split between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F. Above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 August 31 mean high of 94.6 °F reflect persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, while elevated dew points keep heat indices near 110 °F. Small forecast divergences in maximum solar heating or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight probabilities between the two leading bins; later model runs or surface observations on the day itself could shift the exact peak by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin on August 31 points to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, supporting the near-even market split between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F. Above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 August 31 mean high of 94.6 °F reflect persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, while elevated dew points keep heat indices near 110 °F. Small forecast divergences in maximum solar heating or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight probabilities between the two leading bins; later model runs or surface observations on the day itself could shift the exact peak by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin on August 31 points to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, supporting the near-even market split between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F. Above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 August 31 mean high of 94.6 °F reflect persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, while elevated dew points keep heat indices near 110 °F. Small forecast divergences in maximum solar heating or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight probabilities between the two leading bins; later model runs or surface observations on the day itself could shift the exact peak by a degree or two.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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