Strong consensus among official forecasts and real-time observations from MetService and regional models drives the 99.4% market-implied probability for a 15°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 29, 2026. Late-winter conditions feature northwesterly winds of 15–25 knots under mostly clear skies, consistent with climatological highs near 13–14°C that current guidance has revised modestly upward due to a transient ridge. This alignment of ensemble outputs and airport station readings leaves little room for deviation at this late stage. An unexpected wind shift or increased cloud cover could cap readings at 14°C, while stronger insolation might push toward 16°C, though both scenarios remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
15°C 99.4%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NEW
$66,219 Vol.
NEW
$66,219 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
99%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99.4%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NEW
$66,219 Vol.
NEW
$66,219 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
9°C or below
$900 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,860 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,426 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$22,798 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$9,528 Vol.
99%
16°C
$9,870 Vol.
1%
17°C
$8,665 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$6,529 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$1,249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong consensus among official forecasts and real-time observations from MetService and regional models drives the 99.4% market-implied probability for a 15°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 29, 2026. Late-winter conditions feature northwesterly winds of 15–25 knots under mostly clear skies, consistent with climatological highs near 13–14°C that current guidance has revised modestly upward due to a transient ridge. This alignment of ensemble outputs and airport station readings leaves little room for deviation at this late stage. An unexpected wind shift or increased cloud cover could cap readings at 14°C, while stronger insolation might push toward 16°C, though both scenarios remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$66,219End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong consensus among official forecasts and real-time observations from MetService and regional models drives the 99.4% market-implied probability for a 15°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 29, 2026. Late-winter conditions feature northwesterly winds of 15–25 knots under mostly clear skies, consistent with climatological highs near 13–14°C that current guidance has revised modestly upward due to a transient ridge. This alignment of ensemble outputs and airport station readings leaves little room for deviation at this late stage. An unexpected wind shift or increased cloud cover could cap readings at 14°C, while stronger insolation might push toward 16°C, though both scenarios remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,219End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong consensus among official forecasts and real-time observations from MetService and regional models drives the 99.4% market-implied probability for a 15°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 29, 2026. Late-winter conditions feature northwesterly winds of 15–25 knots under mostly clear skies, consistent with climatological highs near 13–14°C that current guidance has revised modestly upward due to a transient ridge. This alignment of ensemble outputs and airport station readings leaves little room for deviation at this late stage. An unexpected wind shift or increased cloud cover could cap readings at 14°C, while stronger insolation might push toward 16°C, though both scenarios remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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