Forecast models indicate Chicago's August 30 maximum temperature will likely settle in the low-to-mid 80s°F, with market-implied odds clustered on 84-85°F and 86-87°F due to small ensemble spreads in afternoon boundary-layer heating. Primary drivers include the strength and timing of warm-air advection ahead of a weak cold front, surface high pressure promoting clear skies, and local factors such as dew-point levels and mixing depth that can shift the peak by 1–3°F. Historical late-August climatology places the average high near 83°F at O’Hare, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest positive anomalies. NOAA and NWS updates overnight will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
84-85°F 27%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
1%
96°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 27%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$149 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$156 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$381 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$140 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$234 Vol.
26%
88-89°F
$275 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$187 Vol.
4%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
1%
96°F or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models indicate Chicago's August 30 maximum temperature will likely settle in the low-to-mid 80s°F, with market-implied odds clustered on 84-85°F and 86-87°F due to small ensemble spreads in afternoon boundary-layer heating. Primary drivers include the strength and timing of warm-air advection ahead of a weak cold front, surface high pressure promoting clear skies, and local factors such as dew-point levels and mixing depth that can shift the peak by 1–3°F. Historical late-August climatology places the average high near 83°F at O’Hare, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest positive anomalies. NOAA and NWS updates overnight will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,001End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models indicate Chicago's August 30 maximum temperature will likely settle in the low-to-mid 80s°F, with market-implied odds clustered on 84-85°F and 86-87°F due to small ensemble spreads in afternoon boundary-layer heating. Primary drivers include the strength and timing of warm-air advection ahead of a weak cold front, surface high pressure promoting clear skies, and local factors such as dew-point levels and mixing depth that can shift the peak by 1–3°F. Historical late-August climatology places the average high near 83°F at O’Hare, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest positive anomalies. NOAA and NWS updates overnight will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,001End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models indicate Chicago's August 30 maximum temperature will likely settle in the low-to-mid 80s°F, with market-implied odds clustered on 84-85°F and 86-87°F due to small ensemble spreads in afternoon boundary-layer heating. Primary drivers include the strength and timing of warm-air advection ahead of a weak cold front, surface high pressure promoting clear skies, and local factors such as dew-point levels and mixing depth that can shift the peak by 1–3°F. Historical late-August climatology places the average high near 83°F at O’Hare, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest positive anomalies. NOAA and NWS updates overnight will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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