Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago points to a warm overnight period on August 30 driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a frontal system, with highs reaching the upper 80s and limited radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies and dew points in the mid-60s. These conditions favor minimum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 70s rather than the seasonal 1991–2020 average low near 64°F, as southerly winds off Lake Michigan suppress the typical nocturnal drop while urban heat retention adds a few degrees. Minor forecast variations in cloud timing or wind speed create tight spreads among the leading 70–73°F bins, with clearer or calmer scenarios needed to push readings into the upper 60s. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of the 29th will refine the exact low ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
72-73°F 33%
70-71°F 29%
74-75°F 28%
66-67°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
12%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
29%
72-73°F
33%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
8%
82°F or higher
6%
72-73°F 33%
70-71°F 29%
74-75°F 28%
66-67°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
$26 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
8%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
25%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
29%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
33%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$10 Vol.
8%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
8%
82°F or higher
$10 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago points to a warm overnight period on August 30 driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a frontal system, with highs reaching the upper 80s and limited radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies and dew points in the mid-60s. These conditions favor minimum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 70s rather than the seasonal 1991–2020 average low near 64°F, as southerly winds off Lake Michigan suppress the typical nocturnal drop while urban heat retention adds a few degrees. Minor forecast variations in cloud timing or wind speed create tight spreads among the leading 70–73°F bins, with clearer or calmer scenarios needed to push readings into the upper 60s. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of the 29th will refine the exact low ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago points to a warm overnight period on August 30 driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a frontal system, with highs reaching the upper 80s and limited radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies and dew points in the mid-60s. These conditions favor minimum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 70s rather than the seasonal 1991–2020 average low near 64°F, as southerly winds off Lake Michigan suppress the typical nocturnal drop while urban heat retention adds a few degrees. Minor forecast variations in cloud timing or wind speed create tight spreads among the leading 70–73°F bins, with clearer or calmer scenarios needed to push readings into the upper 60s. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of the 29th will refine the exact low ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago points to a warm overnight period on August 30 driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a frontal system, with highs reaching the upper 80s and limited radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies and dew points in the mid-60s. These conditions favor minimum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 70s rather than the seasonal 1991–2020 average low near 64°F, as southerly winds off Lake Michigan suppress the typical nocturnal drop while urban heat retention adds a few degrees. Minor forecast variations in cloud timing or wind speed create tight spreads among the leading 70–73°F bins, with clearer or calmer scenarios needed to push readings into the upper 60s. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of the 29th will refine the exact low ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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