Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 34°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Madrid on August 31, aligning with trader-implied odds of 53% for that threshold. Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula is producing clear skies, light variable winds, and low humidity, maximizing daytime solar insolation under typical late-August conditions with afternoon peaks near 32–34°C. Recent runs show minimal model spread and no incoming fronts or moisture that would suppress heating, keeping the 33–35°C range dominant in market pricing while longer-range warming signals remain too distant to shift probabilities meaningfully.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 53%
35°C 26%
33°C 20%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
20%
34°C
53%
35°C
26%
36°C
8%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 26%
33°C 20%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
5%
33°C
$22 Vol.
20%
34°C
$107 Vol.
53%
35°C
$357 Vol.
26%
36°C
$0 Vol.
8%
37°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 34°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Madrid on August 31, aligning with trader-implied odds of 53% for that threshold. Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula is producing clear skies, light variable winds, and low humidity, maximizing daytime solar insolation under typical late-August conditions with afternoon peaks near 32–34°C. Recent runs show minimal model spread and no incoming fronts or moisture that would suppress heating, keeping the 33–35°C range dominant in market pricing while longer-range warming signals remain too distant to shift probabilities meaningfully.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$536End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 34°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Madrid on August 31, aligning with trader-implied odds of 53% for that threshold. Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula is producing clear skies, light variable winds, and low humidity, maximizing daytime solar insolation under typical late-August conditions with afternoon peaks near 32–34°C. Recent runs show minimal model spread and no incoming fronts or moisture that would suppress heating, keeping the 33–35°C range dominant in market pricing while longer-range warming signals remain too distant to shift probabilities meaningfully.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$536End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 34°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Madrid on August 31, aligning with trader-implied odds of 53% for that threshold. Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula is producing clear skies, light variable winds, and low humidity, maximizing daytime solar insolation under typical late-August conditions with afternoon peaks near 32–34°C. Recent runs show minimal model spread and no incoming fronts or moisture that would suppress heating, keeping the 33–35°C range dominant in market pricing while longer-range warming signals remain too distant to shift probabilities meaningfully.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions