Forecast models from the National Weather Service and global ensembles maintain a strong high-pressure ridge over North Texas through Labor Day, supporting mostly sunny skies, south to southeast winds of 5–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover for Dallas on August 31. This setup favors afternoon highs near 100°F, with guidance clustered between 98–102°F amid typical late-August humidity that elevates heat indices above 105°F. The even distribution of market-implied odds across the 98–103°F bins reflects small but persistent spread in model solutions for peak mixing and boundary-layer moisture, rather than any single disruptive shift. Historical climatology shows average highs near 94°F, underscoring how the current ridge strength keeps readings well above normal yet short of record territory. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 31?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 31?
98-99°F 53%
100-101°F 36%
102-103°F 35%
104-105°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
11%
98-99°F
53%
100-101°F
36%
102-103°F
35%
104-105°F
20%
106-107°F
7%
108°F or higher
7%
98-99°F 53%
100-101°F 36%
102-103°F 35%
104-105°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
7%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
7%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
11%
98-99°F
$42 Vol.
53%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
36%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
35%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
20%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
7%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and global ensembles maintain a strong high-pressure ridge over North Texas through Labor Day, supporting mostly sunny skies, south to southeast winds of 5–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover for Dallas on August 31. This setup favors afternoon highs near 100°F, with guidance clustered between 98–102°F amid typical late-August humidity that elevates heat indices above 105°F. The even distribution of market-implied odds across the 98–103°F bins reflects small but persistent spread in model solutions for peak mixing and boundary-layer moisture, rather than any single disruptive shift. Historical climatology shows average highs near 94°F, underscoring how the current ridge strength keeps readings well above normal yet short of record territory. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$42End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and global ensembles maintain a strong high-pressure ridge over North Texas through Labor Day, supporting mostly sunny skies, south to southeast winds of 5–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover for Dallas on August 31. This setup favors afternoon highs near 100°F, with guidance clustered between 98–102°F amid typical late-August humidity that elevates heat indices above 105°F. The even distribution of market-implied odds across the 98–103°F bins reflects small but persistent spread in model solutions for peak mixing and boundary-layer moisture, rather than any single disruptive shift. Historical climatology shows average highs near 94°F, underscoring how the current ridge strength keeps readings well above normal yet short of record territory. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and global ensembles maintain a strong high-pressure ridge over North Texas through Labor Day, supporting mostly sunny skies, south to southeast winds of 5–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover for Dallas on August 31. This setup favors afternoon highs near 100°F, with guidance clustered between 98–102°F amid typical late-August humidity that elevates heat indices above 105°F. The even distribution of market-implied odds across the 98–103°F bins reflects small but persistent spread in model solutions for peak mixing and boundary-layer moisture, rather than any single disruptive shift. Historical climatology shows average highs near 94°F, underscoring how the current ridge strength keeps readings well above normal yet short of record territory. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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