Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows for Chicago on August 31 in the mid- to upper 70s under partly cloudy skies and continued southerly flow. This pattern limits nocturnal radiative cooling while advecting warm, moist air from the Gulf region, keeping minimum temperatures well above seasonal norms near 68°F. Traders split near-even on sub-65°F versus 84°F+ extremes because small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or a late frontal passage could shift the low by several degrees, with ensemble spreads highlighting this sensitivity. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and evening model runs will refine the resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 31?
84°F or higher 96%
65°F or below 59%
68-69°F 49%
70-71°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
59%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84°F or higher
96%
84°F or higher 96%
65°F or below 59%
68-69°F 49%
70-71°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
$0 Vol.
59%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
30%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
25%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
49%
84°F or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows for Chicago on August 31 in the mid- to upper 70s under partly cloudy skies and continued southerly flow. This pattern limits nocturnal radiative cooling while advecting warm, moist air from the Gulf region, keeping minimum temperatures well above seasonal norms near 68°F. Traders split near-even on sub-65°F versus 84°F+ extremes because small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or a late frontal passage could shift the low by several degrees, with ensemble spreads highlighting this sensitivity. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and evening model runs will refine the resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows for Chicago on August 31 in the mid- to upper 70s under partly cloudy skies and continued southerly flow. This pattern limits nocturnal radiative cooling while advecting warm, moist air from the Gulf region, keeping minimum temperatures well above seasonal norms near 68°F. Traders split near-even on sub-65°F versus 84°F+ extremes because small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or a late frontal passage could shift the low by several degrees, with ensemble spreads highlighting this sensitivity. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and evening model runs will refine the resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows for Chicago on August 31 in the mid- to upper 70s under partly cloudy skies and continued southerly flow. This pattern limits nocturnal radiative cooling while advecting warm, moist air from the Gulf region, keeping minimum temperatures well above seasonal norms near 68°F. Traders split near-even on sub-65°F versus 84°F+ extremes because small variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or a late frontal passage could shift the low by several degrees, with ensemble spreads highlighting this sensitivity. Upcoming NWS forecast updates and evening model runs will refine the resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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