**Market-implied odds favor a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum in Tokyo on August 29, reflecting model consensus on limited daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow are suppressing insolation and advecting cooler maritime air, keeping surface temperatures below late-August climatological normals near 31°C. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs highlight 60–70% precipitation probability with mostly cloudy skies, which caps radiative warming despite elevated humidity and dew points. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 26–29°C outcomes hinges on the timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction during peak heating hours; drier or sunnier interludes could push readings toward 29°C, while steadier rain would favor the lower end. Updated short-range model runs and official JMA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data traders are weighting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
27°C 32%
28°C 28%
26°C 17%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
17%
27°C
32%
28°C
28%
29°C
13%
30°C
5%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 32%
28°C 28%
26°C 17%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
$1,251 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$35 Vol.
1%
25°C
$27 Vol.
5%
26°C
$85 Vol.
17%
27°C
$2 Vol.
32%
28°C
$170 Vol.
28%
29°C
$119 Vol.
13%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum in Tokyo on August 29, reflecting model consensus on limited daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow are suppressing insolation and advecting cooler maritime air, keeping surface temperatures below late-August climatological normals near 31°C. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs highlight 60–70% precipitation probability with mostly cloudy skies, which caps radiative warming despite elevated humidity and dew points. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 26–29°C outcomes hinges on the timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction during peak heating hours; drier or sunnier interludes could push readings toward 29°C, while steadier rain would favor the lower end. Updated short-range model runs and official JMA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data traders are weighting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,880End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum in Tokyo on August 29, reflecting model consensus on limited daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow are suppressing insolation and advecting cooler maritime air, keeping surface temperatures below late-August climatological normals near 31°C. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs highlight 60–70% precipitation probability with mostly cloudy skies, which caps radiative warming despite elevated humidity and dew points. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 26–29°C outcomes hinges on the timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction during peak heating hours; drier or sunnier interludes could push readings toward 29°C, while steadier rain would favor the lower end. Updated short-range model runs and official JMA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data traders are weighting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,880End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum in Tokyo on August 29, reflecting model consensus on limited daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow are suppressing insolation and advecting cooler maritime air, keeping surface temperatures below late-August climatological normals near 31°C. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs highlight 60–70% precipitation probability with mostly cloudy skies, which caps radiative warming despite elevated humidity and dew points. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 26–29°C outcomes hinges on the timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction during peak heating hours; drier or sunnier interludes could push readings toward 29°C, while steadier rain would favor the lower end. Updated short-range model runs and official JMA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data traders are weighting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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