**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to an overnight low of 21–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (36.5%).** Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain or drizzle, and northeasterly flow are the dominant factors suppressing temperatures. These conditions limit daytime heating while preventing strong nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to the seasonal average of ~23°C but slightly below recent hot, clearer spells. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models (including ensemble runs) consistently project lows in this narrow band, with little spread across runs. Recent developments include an approaching frontal system that increased moisture and cloudiness over eastern Japan in the past 24–48 hours, replacing earlier sunny, warmer conditions. This setup favors the observed market tilt, as traders incorporate the latest observational data and short-range model updates showing steady cooling into the low 20s Celsius. Minor variations in exact minimum readings (station siting, timing of clearing) explain the split between 21°C and 22°C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range. Updated model guidance and any late-day clearing trends remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
22°C 46%
21°C 31%
23°C 15%
24°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
31%
22°C
46%
23°C
20%
24°C
13%
25°C
4%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
22°C 46%
21°C 31%
23°C 15%
24°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$138 Vol.
2%
20°C
$11 Vol.
2%
21°C
$178 Vol.
31%
22°C
$124 Vol.
46%
23°C
$420 Vol.
20%
24°C
$108 Vol.
13%
25°C
$166 Vol.
4%
26°C
$188 Vol.
1%
27°C
$288 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$169 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to an overnight low of 21–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (36.5%).**
Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain or drizzle, and northeasterly flow are the dominant factors suppressing temperatures. These conditions limit daytime heating while preventing strong nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to the seasonal average of ~23°C but slightly below recent hot, clearer spells. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models (including ensemble runs) consistently project lows in this narrow band, with little spread across runs.
Recent developments include an approaching frontal system that increased moisture and cloudiness over eastern Japan in the past 24–48 hours, replacing earlier sunny, warmer conditions. This setup favors the observed market tilt, as traders incorporate the latest observational data and short-range model updates showing steady cooling into the low 20s Celsius. Minor variations in exact minimum readings (station siting, timing of clearing) explain the split between 21°C and 22°C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range. Updated model guidance and any late-day clearing trends remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,894End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to an overnight low of 21–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (36.5%).**
Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain or drizzle, and northeasterly flow are the dominant factors suppressing temperatures. These conditions limit daytime heating while preventing strong nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to the seasonal average of ~23°C but slightly below recent hot, clearer spells. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models (including ensemble runs) consistently project lows in this narrow band, with little spread across runs.
Recent developments include an approaching frontal system that increased moisture and cloudiness over eastern Japan in the past 24–48 hours, replacing earlier sunny, warmer conditions. This setup favors the observed market tilt, as traders incorporate the latest observational data and short-range model updates showing steady cooling into the low 20s Celsius. Minor variations in exact minimum readings (station siting, timing of clearing) explain the split between 21°C and 22°C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range. Updated model guidance and any late-day clearing trends remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,894End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to an overnight low of 21–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (36.5%).** Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain or drizzle, and northeasterly flow are the dominant factors suppressing temperatures. These conditions limit daytime heating while preventing strong nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to the seasonal average of ~23°C but slightly below recent hot, clearer spells. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models (including ensemble runs) consistently project lows in this narrow band, with little spread across runs. Recent developments include an approaching frontal system that increased moisture and cloudiness over eastern Japan in the past 24–48 hours, replacing earlier sunny, warmer conditions. This setup favors the observed market tilt, as traders incorporate the latest observational data and short-range model updates showing steady cooling into the low 20s Celsius. Minor variations in exact minimum readings (station siting, timing of clearing) explain the split between 21°C and 22°C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range. Updated model guidance and any late-day clearing trends remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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