**Persistent high-pressure ridging over the southern Plains has locked North Texas into a hot, dry pattern, with official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models projecting overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s for Dallas on August 31.** Clear skies will promote radiative cooling after sunset, but light southerly winds (5–10 mph) and warm-air advection from the Gulf are limiting how far temperatures fall, keeping the minimum elevated relative to the long-term average low of ~75 °F. Recent observations show consecutive nights in the upper 70s amid a 40-plus-day dry spell, and ensemble guidance through the weekend into Monday shows minimal spread in boundary-layer temperatures. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 80–83 °F bins reflects this scientific consensus: small differences in forecast wind mixing, dew-point advection, or the precise timing of any high-cloud increase can shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °F, while the broader range of lower-probability outcomes captures the low risk of any unexpected cooling or the slim chance of slightly warmer readings if mixing persists longer. No significant model divergence or synoptic change is indicated before resolution.