Forecast models from sources like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles currently project overnight lows of 12–15°C in Mexico City for August 31, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. High-altitude location at roughly 2,240 meters promotes efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, especially amid the rainy season's variable cloud cover and convective activity, which can either trap heat or enhance cooling through evaporative effects. Recent observations show minima near seasonal averages of 12–13°C, with trader sentiment reflecting modest uncertainty from potential shifts in steering winds, precipitation timing, or clearer-sky episodes that could dip readings lower or hold them higher. Updated model runs and local station data ahead of the date remain key variables for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
7°C or below 53%
10°C 48%
11°C 48%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
7°C or below
53%
8°C
6%
9°C
9%
10°C
48%
11°C
48%
12°C
26%
13°C
27%
14°C
27%
15°C
27%
16°C
48%
17°C or higher
47%
7°C or below 53%
10°C 48%
11°C 48%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
53%
8°C
$0 Vol.
6%
9°C
$0 Vol.
9%
10°C
$0 Vol.
48%
11°C
$0 Vol.
48%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles currently project overnight lows of 12–15°C in Mexico City for August 31, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. High-altitude location at roughly 2,240 meters promotes efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, especially amid the rainy season's variable cloud cover and convective activity, which can either trap heat or enhance cooling through evaporative effects. Recent observations show minima near seasonal averages of 12–13°C, with trader sentiment reflecting modest uncertainty from potential shifts in steering winds, precipitation timing, or clearer-sky episodes that could dip readings lower or hold them higher. Updated model runs and local station data ahead of the date remain key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles currently project overnight lows of 12–15°C in Mexico City for August 31, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. High-altitude location at roughly 2,240 meters promotes efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, especially amid the rainy season's variable cloud cover and convective activity, which can either trap heat or enhance cooling through evaporative effects. Recent observations show minima near seasonal averages of 12–13°C, with trader sentiment reflecting modest uncertainty from potential shifts in steering winds, precipitation timing, or clearer-sky episodes that could dip readings lower or hold them higher. Updated model runs and local station data ahead of the date remain key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles currently project overnight lows of 12–15°C in Mexico City for August 31, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. High-altitude location at roughly 2,240 meters promotes efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, especially amid the rainy season's variable cloud cover and convective activity, which can either trap heat or enhance cooling through evaporative effects. Recent observations show minima near seasonal averages of 12–13°C, with trader sentiment reflecting modest uncertainty from potential shifts in steering winds, precipitation timing, or clearer-sky episodes that could dip readings lower or hold them higher. Updated model runs and local station data ahead of the date remain key variables for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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