Recent official forecasts from agencies like the Brazilian CGE and international models indicate a warm, dry air mass will sustain elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with projected daily maxima in the 31–34°C range before a cold front arrives. This setup, marked by northwest winds and low humidity, favors afternoon peaks near or above 30°C, consistent with recent observed highs exceeding seasonal norms of about 22°C. Trader consensus around 29°C or below at 40.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in the precise timing of frontal passage and potential measurement site variations, while lower-probability outcomes above 33°C account for model spread on peak intensity. Updated runs from NOAA and regional ensembles expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify land-sea breeze and cloud cover effects critical to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
29°C or below 41%
30°C 17%
31°C 13%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
41%
30°C
17%
31°C
13%
32°C
11%
33°C
8%
34°C
3%
35°C
4%
36°C
<1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
29°C or below 41%
30°C 17%
31°C 13%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$1,022 Vol.
41%
30°C
$197 Vol.
17%
31°C
$131 Vol.
13%
32°C
$83 Vol.
11%
33°C
$371 Vol.
8%
34°C
$119 Vol.
3%
35°C
$42 Vol.
4%
36°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$10 Vol.
1%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies like the Brazilian CGE and international models indicate a warm, dry air mass will sustain elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with projected daily maxima in the 31–34°C range before a cold front arrives. This setup, marked by northwest winds and low humidity, favors afternoon peaks near or above 30°C, consistent with recent observed highs exceeding seasonal norms of about 22°C. Trader consensus around 29°C or below at 40.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in the precise timing of frontal passage and potential measurement site variations, while lower-probability outcomes above 33°C account for model spread on peak intensity. Updated runs from NOAA and regional ensembles expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify land-sea breeze and cloud cover effects critical to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,015End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies like the Brazilian CGE and international models indicate a warm, dry air mass will sustain elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with projected daily maxima in the 31–34°C range before a cold front arrives. This setup, marked by northwest winds and low humidity, favors afternoon peaks near or above 30°C, consistent with recent observed highs exceeding seasonal norms of about 22°C. Trader consensus around 29°C or below at 40.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in the precise timing of frontal passage and potential measurement site variations, while lower-probability outcomes above 33°C account for model spread on peak intensity. Updated runs from NOAA and regional ensembles expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify land-sea breeze and cloud cover effects critical to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,015End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from agencies like the Brazilian CGE and international models indicate a warm, dry air mass will sustain elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with projected daily maxima in the 31–34°C range before a cold front arrives. This setup, marked by northwest winds and low humidity, favors afternoon peaks near or above 30°C, consistent with recent observed highs exceeding seasonal norms of about 22°C. Trader consensus around 29°C or below at 40.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in the precise timing of frontal passage and potential measurement site variations, while lower-probability outcomes above 33°C account for model spread on peak intensity. Updated runs from NOAA and regional ensembles expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify land-sea breeze and cloud cover effects critical to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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