Forecast models show a relatively narrow spread for São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 30, with most guidance clustering between 29–33 °C. Key variables include northwest winds that have supported recent warming, modest afternoon cloud cover, and a low-probability chance of scattered showers that could limit peak heating. Official agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate surface highs near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies, while some higher-resolution runs allow brief clearing that could push readings to 32–33 °C. Historical late-August maxima average around 22–25 °C, so current warmth reflects a transient ridge rather than a sustained pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 30–32 °C, reflecting both the central forecast envelope and residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and convective timing before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
31°C 22%
30°C 20%
32°C 19%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
6%
29°C
10%
30°C
20%
31°C
22%
32°C
19%
33°C
16%
34°C
8%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
31°C 22%
30°C 20%
32°C 19%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
$564 Vol.
6%
29°C
$240 Vol.
10%
30°C
$473 Vol.
20%
31°C
$275 Vol.
22%
32°C
$497 Vol.
19%
33°C
$365 Vol.
16%
34°C
$359 Vol.
8%
35°C
$96 Vol.
2%
36°C
$72 Vol.
1%
37°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$1,172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show a relatively narrow spread for São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 30, with most guidance clustering between 29–33 °C. Key variables include northwest winds that have supported recent warming, modest afternoon cloud cover, and a low-probability chance of scattered showers that could limit peak heating. Official agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate surface highs near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies, while some higher-resolution runs allow brief clearing that could push readings to 32–33 °C. Historical late-August maxima average around 22–25 °C, so current warmth reflects a transient ridge rather than a sustained pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 30–32 °C, reflecting both the central forecast envelope and residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and convective timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,432End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show a relatively narrow spread for São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 30, with most guidance clustering between 29–33 °C. Key variables include northwest winds that have supported recent warming, modest afternoon cloud cover, and a low-probability chance of scattered showers that could limit peak heating. Official agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate surface highs near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies, while some higher-resolution runs allow brief clearing that could push readings to 32–33 °C. Historical late-August maxima average around 22–25 °C, so current warmth reflects a transient ridge rather than a sustained pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 30–32 °C, reflecting both the central forecast envelope and residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and convective timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,432End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models show a relatively narrow spread for São Paulo’s maximum temperature on August 30, with most guidance clustering between 29–33 °C. Key variables include northwest winds that have supported recent warming, modest afternoon cloud cover, and a low-probability chance of scattered showers that could limit peak heating. Official agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate surface highs near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies, while some higher-resolution runs allow brief clearing that could push readings to 32–33 °C. Historical late-August maxima average around 22–25 °C, so current warmth reflects a transient ridge rather than a sustained pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 30–32 °C, reflecting both the central forecast envelope and residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and convective timing before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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