**Forecast models from sources like Climatempo, Met Office, and local Brazilian weather services indicate the overnight low for São Paulo on August 29, 2026, will likely bottom out between 20–22°C.** This stems from clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and elevated dew points near 14–17°C that limit radiative cooling after a hot afternoon peaking near 30–35°C. August climatology normally features morning lows around 12°C, but persistent warm advection and the absence of a strong cold front—expected only after September 1—have kept temperatures elevated. Hourly data show the coldest readings clustered around dawn near 21°C, with minimal variation across urban stations. Market-implied odds heavily favor 22°C (68.5%) followed by 21°C and 20°C, reflecting consensus on these model outputs rather than any outlier cold scenario. Updated runs and real-time observations through the evening will determine final resolution, but current atmospheric conditions strongly support this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
22°C 97%
18°C 1%
19°C 1%
13°C or below <1%
$1,515 Vol.
$1,515 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
28%
21°C
37%
22°C
78%
23°C or higher
<1%
22°C 97%
18°C 1%
19°C 1%
13°C or below <1%
$1,515 Vol.
$1,515 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
$56 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$34 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$111 Vol.
1%
19°C
$115 Vol.
1%
20°C
$156 Vol.
28%
21°C
$28 Vol.
37%
22°C
$197 Vol.
78%
23°C or higher
$290 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like Climatempo, Met Office, and local Brazilian weather services indicate the overnight low for São Paulo on August 29, 2026, will likely bottom out between 20–22°C.** This stems from clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and elevated dew points near 14–17°C that limit radiative cooling after a hot afternoon peaking near 30–35°C.
August climatology normally features morning lows around 12°C, but persistent warm advection and the absence of a strong cold front—expected only after September 1—have kept temperatures elevated. Hourly data show the coldest readings clustered around dawn near 21°C, with minimal variation across urban stations.
Market-implied odds heavily favor 22°C (68.5%) followed by 21°C and 20°C, reflecting consensus on these model outputs rather than any outlier cold scenario. Updated runs and real-time observations through the evening will determine final resolution, but current atmospheric conditions strongly support this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,515End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like Climatempo, Met Office, and local Brazilian weather services indicate the overnight low for São Paulo on August 29, 2026, will likely bottom out between 20–22°C.** This stems from clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and elevated dew points near 14–17°C that limit radiative cooling after a hot afternoon peaking near 30–35°C.
August climatology normally features morning lows around 12°C, but persistent warm advection and the absence of a strong cold front—expected only after September 1—have kept temperatures elevated. Hourly data show the coldest readings clustered around dawn near 21°C, with minimal variation across urban stations.
Market-implied odds heavily favor 22°C (68.5%) followed by 21°C and 20°C, reflecting consensus on these model outputs rather than any outlier cold scenario. Updated runs and real-time observations through the evening will determine final resolution, but current atmospheric conditions strongly support this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,515End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like Climatempo, Met Office, and local Brazilian weather services indicate the overnight low for São Paulo on August 29, 2026, will likely bottom out between 20–22°C.** This stems from clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and elevated dew points near 14–17°C that limit radiative cooling after a hot afternoon peaking near 30–35°C. August climatology normally features morning lows around 12°C, but persistent warm advection and the absence of a strong cold front—expected only after September 1—have kept temperatures elevated. Hourly data show the coldest readings clustered around dawn near 21°C, with minimal variation across urban stations. Market-implied odds heavily favor 22°C (68.5%) followed by 21°C and 20°C, reflecting consensus on these model outputs rather than any outlier cold scenario. Updated runs and real-time observations through the evening will determine final resolution, but current atmospheric conditions strongly support this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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